Showing posts with label Republicans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Republicans. Show all posts

Friday, November 21, 2025

The Epstein Curse

 

It appears that the Epstein affair could turn out to be one of the biggest political scandals of our time, or even in the entire history of the Republic. Time will tell, but I put it way ahead of Watergate, for example. Now, I call it a “political” scandal not because it is entirely political – people from many walks of life (all at the top of whatever walk it is) have been caught in the web – but it is political because (1) so many of the names on the list are politicians or are heavily involved in politics, and (2) it has generated not only a war of words (and legislation) between the parties, but has also (3) created a major fault line running right through the MAGA movement – one that is unlikely to be fixed by any action of the administration, and which may have a major impact on the mid-term elections and beyond. In other words, it's too late to do the right thing; all that remains is to keep from doing too many wrong things. The administration claims that it can't win when it comes to dealing with the opposition, and this is true. The challenge is to cut losses, and who is wise enough to know what that would entail?


As for that list – which keeps getting larger each day – what is striking is that it pretty much represents a “who's who” of the ruling elite, regardless of political affiliation. So while it's heavily weighted on the political side, other demographics are amply represented – entertainment, the media, sports, business, banking, even royalty (in Price Andrew's case – he being the only one besides Ghislaine Maxwell who has suffered any serious consequences, which is interesting in itself).


Questions abound, and they are unlikely to be answered by any further release of information by the courts or the Justice Department (especially if heavily redacted, which is likely). Things like: (1) What was Epstein's game, anyway? What was his mission? What was he really trying to do, and why? (2) Where did all of his money come from? (Don't say “consulting” – that's a cover story if there ever was one.) (3) If he was as unsavory a character as he seems to have been, why did all these A-list people choose to associate with him, like so many groupies? Why the plane rides to and from his island? Why the parties at his many mansions? And, what did he have on so many of these people? (Whatever it was, it keeps them quiet to this day.)


And of course, the question that kicked the whole thing off – how did he die, and why? (Unless he didn't die but is living on some isolated island along with Hitler, JFK, and Jimmy Hoffa.) In this sense, the whole affair is red meat for conspiracy theorists. If he was engaged in blackmail and/or extortion, for example, how many people would have benefited from his demise? I'm guessing a few hundred. So are they all going to be ushered into a police lineup? Doesn't seem likely, but it would be amusing, you must admit.


If Epstein was a mysterious figure when he was at the top of his game, the mystery has only deepened since his death. And for that matter, if he was that powerful and had that many powerful friends/cronies/associates/clients, why did he get arrested in the first place? People at that level can “fix” just about anything. And how did he wind up in jail? No self-respecting blackmailer or extortionist is going to let that happen. Clearly, his empire imploded for some reason, but then the question is why? Did it get out of his control? Were there too many leaks (including, perhaps, deathbed confessions)? Did he outlive his usefulness? (Surely you don't believe that he was a one-man show like Hugh Hefner!)


Then you have the dithering, awkward, ambivalent, backtracking approach of the Justice Department to the whole thing. One day they want to get to the bottom of it all, the next day they're not so sure. The rationales make no sense... and the Democrats, predictably, jumped all over it, hoping that – at long last! – they've found the silver bullet that will bring down Trump, his administration, MAGA, the Republican Party, and... but hold on, now it turns out that The List also includes any number of Democrats, liberals, and their friends in the media and elsewhere, so they have their own reasons for wanting the whole thing to go away, but apparently hurting Trump is more important, so they're on the side of full release and “transparency”, at least so far.


But then you have the courts, and whose side are they on? (Because the courts are always on one side or the other, let's not kid ourselves.) So they're embroiled in the politics of the thing as well. Who gets more hurt if certain information is released? It's a gigantic cost/benefit problem. The courts – or so it seems – are generally on the side of the Democrats and liberals in general. So how do they work it so that any release of information inflicts maximum damage on Trump and minimum damage on the Democrats?


(Sidebar: The notion of justice being “blind” is a perennial case of naive optimism. While justice as a concept or principle may be “blind” in the abstract, it is anything but when it encounters human nature, which very readily tends toward corruption. And unfortunately the legal system is populated with, by and large, human beings – although one might fantasize that AI could replace them some day, thus enhancing the blindness factor – except that blandness might then replace blindness. So what we wind up with is what the media refer to as “Obama judges”, “Bush judges”, “Clinton judges”, “Biden judges”, “Trump judges”, and so on – right up to and including the Supreme Court. How one achieves balance, fairness, and true justice under these conditions is beyond me.)


But to return to the legislative branch – we have a sharp divide, with what appears to be “release it all, and let the chips fall where they may” (AKA the Democrats have more to fear – but also because some legislators actually feel that the victims deserve justice), and the more cautious voices, who fear (and rightly so) that more information is going to raise even more questions. It's all about whose ox is getting gored, as the old saying goes.


Like any good conspiracy, when you dig too deep you eventually run into what has been called a “wall of silence” – where nobody knows anything, or if they do they aren't telling, for reasons only they know. The evidence that this has already occurred, at least to some extent, is the Justice Department's awkward handling of the matter from the start. It's as if they were, at first, barking up the wrong tree (which means the right tree), so had to switch to the right tree (which means the wrong tree, i.e. the dead end). So they will, at this point, claim due diligence, and blame the courts for scuttling the operation, while countless people up and down the fruited plain will heave a great sigh of relief. No heads will roll, no one will be ruined or “cancelled”, the whole thing will be cast into the memory hole until, probably a generation from now as happened with JFK, it will be claimed that “now it can be told” (once all of the guilty parties are dead). Twas ever thus. But still, it's amusing to see all of the scuffling and avoidance of the real issues.


The Epstein mystery is a mile deep. It's not just about a few jaded or naive or star-struck rich and powerful people seeking pleasures (forbidden or otherwise) along with others of their own kind. It is that, but it's much more. Were they all set up, and if so for what? How were they used, and by whom? And to what end? And did it work? Apparently it did, up to a point, but then Epstein fell out of favor. But why? Did he fail, or did someone decide to terminate (so to speak) that particular program? And if so, why? There will always be more questions than answers, because every answer generates more questions.


The more immediate question for the Republicans, and for the MAGA base, is how to repair the major fault line that this affair has created, and to do it in time to keep the midterm elections from being a disaster – and even more so the next presidential election. How ironic would it be if the Republicans, and the MAGA base, who were riding high after the election a year ago, would find themselves out in the cold thanks to a dead guy who was “the host with the most” for so many years. He's the gift that keeps on giving, but not in the way anyone welcomes.


A final thought – I guess it was about time for another earth-shaking conspiracy, since the JFK assassination has gotten to be pretty much old news by now (and the establishment is of one voice in that the matter was long since settled, so let's move on). JFK's assassination at least united the country – somewhat, and for a while – but the Epstein affair has done just the opposite.

Saturday, January 27, 2024

Why are the Democrats Supporting Nikki Haley and not Trump?


Question du jour – why are the Democrats (which includes the mainstream media) supporting Nikki Haley? I mean, they expect to win in November, right?  So why do they care who the Republican nominee is? Some of it can be attributed to TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome), which will always be with us... and of course they don't want Trump to have the “honor” of being nominated (for the 3rd time) by the Republicans, even though they fear and despise the “MAGA terrorists”, i.e. Trump supporters within the Republican party (and those not in the party as well).


It's clear that they aren't playing the long game here. They're getting their jollies by piling on Trump and whoever consents to be his running mate (“I pity the fool...”), but think about this. If Haley winds up being the nominee – and the Dems are doing everything in their power to make certain that Trump can't be nominated – and then loses, the Republican party will survive (if only in the usual minority status). That is, the mainstream Republicans – the “acceptable opposition”, the ones who are always happy to “cross the aisle” and be second-class citizens to the Dems – will take over once and for all, with Trump and the MAGA crowd finally sent into exile and relegated to the ash heap of history.


That would be a perfectly acceptable outcome for the Democrats. Having the Republicans as a perpetual and obseqious minority – which they have been for much of the time in recent years – would feel like business as usual, and the so-called two-party system would survive, at least in theory.


But the Democrats don't want a two-party system – not really. In their heart of hearts, they want a one-party system on the Soviet model, i.e. no opposition at all, not even the acceptable kind. Nothing but unanimous votes in Congress (and eventually one TV network, one radio network, one newspaper (OK, the Soviets had 2)... not to mention, no elections!). So what is the best way to make this happen, or at least to get a head start? It would be to throw Haley under the bus and allow the Republicans to nominate Trump, and then see to it that he loses, at which point the Republicans (meaning all of them, even including the RINOs) could be declared dead and buried along with their MAGA minority.


Now, you might say that Trump and the Republicans lost in 2020, but recovered – and this in spite of the fact that he was the sitting president at the time, and it's rare for a sitting president to be defeated for a second term. But the Democrats and their allies in the media and elsewhere will, by November, have had 4 more years to not only continue to brand Trump as Hitler Incarnate, but also to brand his followers as terrorists and put many of them in jail (and him as well, perhaps) – this process being well under way right now, and proceeding at warp speed. “Our very democracy is at stake!” – cry the mainstream media with one voice.


So the contrasts are much more stark now than in 2020 or 2016 – and this is mainly because the Democrats and the media have declared this to be the case. So the strategy of supporting Haley makes sense in the short run, but in the long run the Dems would be better off if Trump ran again and lost, because from then on the Republicans would be required to hang their heads in shame (for “putting us through this again”) and be paraded around wearing dunce caps by the Red Guard, and be reduced to a bunch of vaporous ghosts (think of 100 Mitch McConnells) wandering aimlessly around Washington while the Democrats establish a people's republic.


(PS – the Dems show no signs of wanting to push Biden aside (or Harris either), despite rumors to that effect. A president who is content to follow orders and read, even if haltingly, from scripts, and a vice president who is satisfied with a portfolio of sinecures, is exactly what they want; it has worked for three years, and it will work for one plus four more.)


(And BTW, Nikki Haley is playing her own game here. She's staying in the race, at least in part (in my opinion) because she expects the Dems/media/courts to take Trump out well before the election, at which point she'll be the last, um, person standing. That's the short game. The medium game would be for her to save a lot of time and money by dropping out now – or at least appearing to – and then wait for Trump to be neutralized, at which point she can come back on stage and save the day like Mighty Mouse.)


It's going to be very interesting to see how these various games intersect over the next few months. In fact, the mainstream (non-MAGA) Republicans may even decide to nominate Trump (assuming he hasn't been disqualified) for the same reason that the Dems would favor this – to insure his defeat, and thus the resounding defeat of the MAGA wing, thus leaving the mainstream unchallenged in their slouch toward obscurity. I'm not sure if they're capable of this kind of subtlety – they are called “the stupid party”, after all – but it would certainly win them friends on the other side – or let's say enemies disguised as friends.


Wednesday, November 16, 2022

Trump 2.0? Eh... not likely

OK folks, time for a reality check. Trump says he's running for president in 2024. Fine. Presumably he'll be running as a Republican. Fine. (I guess he could run as an independent – he might even get on the ticket!) But consider a few of the hurdles he will have to face. He can stage all the rallies he wants, but when it comes to “debates”, guess what – it's the party that decides who gets to participate, and the Republicans could simply refuse to let him in the door. That's number one. Then we have the primaries. Did you know that there is no requirement for primaries? It's not in the Constitution, or anywhere else. The party can decide to have a primary, or it can just skip primaries altogether and go right to the convention. Then there's the small matter of convention delegates and how they're selected. The state committees can simply refuse to send any pro-Trump delegates. And then, in the wildly improbable likelihood that Trump wins a plurality of votes in the convention, they can simply be declared null and void, and the convention can become “brokered” (formerly known as “the smoke-filled room”).

Now this, of course, is all predicated on the premise that high-ranking Republicans have... um... you know, those particular masculine anatomical parts, which they have demonstrated, over and over again, that they do not possess. But really now – does anyone actually expect Orange Man to rise again from the depths, like Godzilla, and take over the Republican Party again? Or for them to allow it to happen? This is, of course, the recurring nightmare of the Republican mainstream – not of the Democrats, note, despite all their wailing! They know it's a lost cause, but it's more fun to pretend it's not. (They've gotten so used to running the Fear Machine that they can't resist using it on themselves.) So all of the hand waving, running in circles, and nervous breakdowns in both parties are no more than theater (but if it keeps the MSM busy for 2 years that could be a good thing). The Republicans have had enough of show biz. They'll nominate some gray nonentity who will be certain to lose to Joe Biden (even if the latter is ruling from an oxygen tent at that point), and thus be able to return to their comfort zone of powerlessness.
(But – BTW – don't think that BLM and Antifa are going to take this sitting down. They are primed and ready for the next fight. Expect them to show up in force at any Trump event until this quixotic candidacy is terminated, either voluntarily or by force.)

Saturday, March 27, 2021

Gaffe or Guff?

 

“I have no idea if there will be a Republican Party” (in 2024).

Thus spoke Uncle Joe, in public and in plain sight, in the first press conference of his first term (heh heh).  So… anyone who wasn’t startled by this needs to cut back on the tranquilizers.  It may have been a unique statement by any president, even in these unique times.  So the question is, was he just rambling or did he lift the curtain, just a wee bit, on the plan -- on the machinations of the Deep State of which he is now titular head?  We know that there are already plans afoot to hunt down “domestic terrorists”, AKA Trump supporters… and that the military have expressed their willingness to take part.  And if “Trump supporters”, who apparently wake up every morning with visions of staging a remake of Jan. 6, are in the crosshairs, can Republicans in general be far behind?  What does the Republican hierarchy think of this statement?  (And since we’re speculating, if the Republican Party disappears before 2024, will it be replaced?  And if so, what with?)

The Democratic/progressive/liberal cabal has been scapegoating the mainstream Republicans for the alleged sins, crimes, and offenses of Donald Trump ever since he declared his candidacy, much to the dismay of said Republicans, who wanted nothing less than to wind up with Trump as their standard bearer.  And when he won and took over the White House, they did everything in their power to subvert, sabotage, and defeat his programs and agenda.  (You’d think they’d have been made honorary Democrats as a reward, but I guess they still weren’t considered virtuous enough.)  So they get blamed, for four long years, for things that they didn’t want and didn’t support, and now that Trump is safely back in Florida the Democrats start calling them “domestic terrorists”, and Nancy Pelosi describes Republicans in Congress as “the enemy within”.  (Something just rang a faint bell.  I think it has to do with Joseph McCarthy and/or J. Edgar Hoover.)  

And now here’s Uncle Joe saying, basically, that the Republicans’ days may be numbered.  (I never thought I’d ever agree with anything he said, but I agree on this one.)  The Republicans in Congress have been relegated to the sidelines and are totally ignored, because… well, who needs them?  Their last remaining grip on any power, namely the filibuster, is about to be done away with… more new Democratic members of Congress (representing DC and Puerto Rico, with Guam waiting in the wings) are soon to be minted… the federal government is about to take over the election process from the states via HR-1, thus assuring lifetime tenure for any and all Democrats... and so on.  So really, if the Republican Party still exists in some vestigial form in 2024, it will be as if it doesn’t, for all intents and purposes.  (Maybe the Democrats will keep it alive just to avoid comparisons with the Soviet Union -- but don’t get your hopes up.  None of the other already-relevant comparisons don’t seem to bother them in the least.)  

Frankly, I find it refreshing that Uncle Joe is letting the cat out of the bag.  (Well, maybe not the whole cat, maybe just one whisker, but still…)  It certainly starts bringing things into focus, and if the Republicans don’t declare Condition Red at this point, they will deserve whatever dreary fate awaits them in 2024.


Friday, March 5, 2021

What's Romney's Game?


Mitt Romney is an empty suit in some respects, but he's not stupid. When he says that “...the polls show that among the names being floated as potential contenders in 2024, if you put President Trump in there among Republicans, he wins in a landslide”, people sit up and take notice – especially when you consider that Romney was one of the more visible and active never-Trumpers all during the Trump administration (and, for that matter, in the run-up to the 2016 election). He did all he could to thwart Trump's programs and initiatives, and to encourage (or shame) other Republicans into doing likewise. In the Pantheon of RINO never-Trumpers he would be placed just below John McCain. Surely Trump running again in 2024 can't be on Romney's wish list – so why even bring it up if it encourages Trump supporters, who remain extremely loyal?


There's a strategy involved here, and I think it involves cutting to the chase and thereby scaring the crap out of not only the Democrats but also of the Republican mainstream. If anyone out there really thinks that Trump might possibly, conceivably, in their worst nightmare, run again, they will immediately start to build walls and fortifications, and make plans to pull every trick in the book to nip the idea in the bud – and this applies to both parties.


There are problems, however, with Romney's statement. For starters, it's based on a number of premises:


  1. That there will even be a presidential election in 2024. Lest we forget, certain members of the left wing of the Democratic Party, along with left-wingers in general, have suggested that we do away with presidential elections altogether. Some will add “and the office of president”, but others will agree to keeping the office but selecting its occupant by committee – made up, of course, of members of the ruling elite, i.e. the top layer of the left-wing pecking order and its facilitators in high tech and among the globalists. (Certain, ahem, overseas entities might be involved as well, for that matter.) Admittedly, one might ask how is this significantly different from what we have now, where there are only two parties in contention (some would say just one, the “uniparty”, and that the rivalry is about as authentic as what goes on in professional wrestling) and where the candidates are selected by the ruling elite and presented to the hapless public for its approval. The difference is that it would actually be more honest in that it would eliminate the pretense of elections representing “the will of the people”. (And by the way, selection by the ruling elite is true of both parties, despite the occasional populist noises made by subgroups. Trump's problem was that he wasn't on the A list; in fact he wasn't on any list at all, and that was his major offense – the hair and the orangeness were just added to provide visuals for the media.)

  2. That the Republican Party will still be functioning in 2024. Right now it is defeated, browbeaten, and being ground into fine powder by Democrat majorities in Congress. The party that thought it was used to standing by helplessly while the engines of government ground on didn't know what helplessness really was until now. When Trump spoke at CPAC he vowed not to start a third party – much to the relief of the Republican mainstream! – but any notion that the conservative (pro-Trump or at least not anti-Trump) minority within the Republican Party is going to somehow take over and become dominant between now and 2024 is wishful thinking at best.

  3. That Trump's base will still be intact in 2024. This seems like a safe bet, but it's important to remember that the Trump base and the Republican base are not the same thing. There is a correlation there, certainly, but I don't think the hard-core Trump supporter feels any loyalty to the Republican Party; in fact, I suspect that they see the Republican mainstream as part of the problem if not the actual enemy. If they had their way they'd throw the establishment Republicans to the dogs and start fresh (and the establishment knows this, which is why they're wasting no time distancing themselves from the “deplorables”).

  4. That – even assuming that elections are held in 2024, and that the Republican Party hasn't yet been declared most sincerely dead – the primary system will still be in place. Remember the good old days of brokered conventions and smoke-filled rooms? They could come back (without the smoke, I suppose). If you get rid of the primaries, then you get rid of the means by which what little is left of the voice of the people can be expressed. All that is left is wheeling and dealing. So let's say that Trump runs and comes out ahead in the primaries – big trouble for the Republican mainstream which will do anything to keep 2016 and the following four years from ever happening again. One solution is to simply ignore the primaries and hold the convention as if they didn't exist. Another solution is to simply not hold primaries. Problem solved! And don't think the Republican hierarchy hasn't been thinking along these lines ever since 2016.

  5. That loyal Trump supporters will still be willing and able to vote for him in primaries and in the general election. Even as we speak, people who vote Republican – or at least have done so in the last two elections – are being declared enemies of the state, and are being added to the watch lists of law enforcement and intelligence agencies based on the notion that they are potential “domestic terrorists”, or actual domestic terrorists by definition. The supposed factual basis for this is as follows: (1) Capitol riots on Jan 6: Trump supporters and no one else. And directed by Trump himself, i.e. no advance planning, to say nothing of spontaneity. (2) Capitol riots were an insurrection and a case of domestic terrorism. (3) And they were also an expression of white supremacy and racism. (4) Therefore, all Trump supporters are insurrectionists, domestic terrorists, white supremacists, and racists. (5) Therefore, anyone who voted for Trump in either 2016 or 2020 is all the above. (6) Therefore, the biggest threat to our national security (and the Biden administration has as much as said this) is Trump supporters and anyone who ever voted for Trump or who would again – which, at last estimate, numbers around 74+ million people, or nearly 1/3 of the adult population of the country. Where will those people be in three years? Will they be able to vote as they like without fear of reprisal, or will a new and improved method of voter suppression have done its work?


Now, I say these are premises, and they are unspoken but may be assumed based on Mitt Romney's statement. Unless he's playing a game here, with the goal of actually rendering some or all of these premises null and void – i.e. of speeding up the process that is already underway of morphing the U.S. from a democracy to a pseudo-democracy to a “people's republic”. And of course, because he is who he is, he will expect to be thanked for this warning by both the Republican mainstream and the Democrats – as if they needed any reminding! We've already seen the Democrats up their game by a quantum leap between 2016 and 2020, and put measures in place (with more on the way -- see H.R. 1) to insure that they will enjoy a perpetual hold on the presidency and Congress. And if, by the same token, the Republicans have been relegated to perpetual irrelevancy, why does Mitt bother? Chances are he hasn't really faced the facts quite yet – and given the overwhelming nature of the facts, chances are he never will.


But there's another angle to all of this. If Trump gives it another try, and the Republicans absolutely refuse to cooperate on any level, who are they going to nominate? Certainly not any true conservative, and absolutely not anyone who supported Trump in the slightest degree during his term in office, or voted for any of his Supreme Court picks, or voted against one or both of his impeachments. No, it will be the usual shopworn loser formula – nominate a moderate... someone who can “reach across the aisle”... someone who is perfectly at home with the Democratic agenda... someone who will be happy to identify as the anti-Trump... and someone who, in case of the inevitable loss, will not be a sore loser but will be gracious in defeat. The envelope, please – Mitt Romney!


So yes, by sounding the alarm regarding Trump's possible return to the political stage, Mitt is hoping to keep that from ever happening by enlisting the cooperation of both the mainstream Republicans and the Democrats. And then, given a dizzying array of “ifs” of various probabilities (which, if multiplied together, produce a joint probability not significantly different from zero), Mitt might just squeeze his way into the White House.


Well, dream on, Mitt – you tried it once and got ground up in the Obama machine, and guess what, the Biden machine is much more powerful and invincible, and adding to its power and reach with each passing day. (I say “Biden machine” but that's just shorthand for “Biden or Harris or whoever else the Democrats nominate in 2024”.) And, you think you represent the Republican mainstream, but I don't think you do, not with your obvious and often-demonstrated RINO vibes. The real Republican mainstream consists of those gray ghosts who wander the halls of the Capitol, kowtowing to the Democrats, apologizing for not being more “compassionate”, being good (and grateful) losers, and on those rare occasions when they win, not knowing what to do next. You can become one of them, which is a certain recipe for obscurity, or you can stick with your RINO/never-Trumper minority within a minority party and be (or remain) a hero of sorts to the Democrats and the media before you are relegated to obscurity anyway. But at least you've planted the seeds of fear (as if any more were needed) in the fevered brains of both parties, and they may come around to thanking you for the favor just before they give you a gold watch (a Chinese knock-off, actually) and a bus ticket out of town.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

The Republican Party post-Trump, Revisited


When Donald Trump rides back up that escalator (figuratively at least) he will leave behind a political party that did not welcome him, never accepted him, and – I strongly suspect – is glad to see him leave and get out of their hair. He was never the head, or leader, or whatever, of the Republican Party (not that I am at all certain who was), and now that he's leaving the Republicans can settle back into their accustomed torpor, where every day is a lazy day in the steaming tropics and all that is needed is a hammock and a cold drink garnished with a rice paper umbrella. But is this the action of any sort of political party? Trump's program was their program, whether they liked it or not – and with him gone they are back to being program-less and free of ideas. How long can they survive under those conditions?


The Republicans do have a future, but just not on the national level. They will continue to be players in various redoubts across the fruited plain – not including the coasts, of course, nor various liberal enclaves in flyover country (cities controlled by Democrats plus university towns). They will enjoy dominance in some state legislatures and may be elected governors – although how much good it will do is questionable, since judges everywhere seem committed to reinforcing the “progressive” agenda at all costs (not to mention, the last gasp of state autonomy will be the upcoming elimination of the Electoral College). And they will, of course, be active at the county, small city, town, and village level. But on the national level I consider them the walking dead, and here's why.


But first a comment. Now and then someone – not necessarily a disgruntled Republican, it could be a liberal engaging in triumphalism – will contend that Donald Trump killed the Republican Party by, first, having the unmitigated gall to enter the Republican primaries in 2016, then to be nominated (aided by the Russians, no doubt – still an article of faith for the Democrats and the mainstream media), and then to be elected (ditto). And Republicans ever since then have been wringing their hands that here's this Godzilla-like creature in their midst who's ruining everything and giving Republicans a bad name, and that the country will never forgive the Republicans for having foisted Trump off on them, and that this spells doom for generations to come, et cetera.


I have a slightly different take on this. My opinion is that Trump actually saved the Republican Party from its own boring, colorless incompetence... injected new life into it (or tried to)... and kept it, basically, alive for four more years -- since it was at death's door by the end of the Obama administration, and a Hillary victory would have been the coup de grace (or coup de disgrace, whatever). The problem is that most Republicans, and especially the “never Trumpers”, would disagree with this, and contend that the party would be in much better shape now if it hadn't been forced to, somehow, go along with the bulk of Trump's initiatives, or at least not actively oppose them (with a few notable exceptions).


Party loyalty is, of course, party loyalty, not loyalty to any one person; all we have to do is go back to the Watergate era to find confirmation of that. (And at a slightly earlier time, a lot of Democrats bailed on LBJ.) But sometimes party loyalty involves compromise – doing what you have to do. And yet there were, and are, people who disagree, the foremost example having been John McCain, who took an active role in subverting the Trump administration from Day One. And Mitt Romney was, basically, McCain's understudy.


But the point is that Trump, simply by being who he is and doing what he did, at least kept the Republican “brand” on the market, even though it was an operation not unlike the process of keeping a disembodied brain alive in a jar like in some horror movie. (Except in the case of the Republicans, he was keeping a body alive without a brain – not even the “Abby Normal” brain from “Young Frankenstein”.)


So Trump gave the Republicans a new lease on life, except they didn't want it and didn't appreciate it. They would rather have been dead (as a party) than be seen as supporting Trump, as many of them said quite explicitly during the 2016 campaign. Distance from Trump = virtue and respectability was the message. He was as much an outsider to them as he was to the liberals/Democrats/progressives.


So now they get to return to the soporific creature comforts of minority status, except this time for keeps. Which means, incidentally, that the U.S. finally capitulates and converts to a one-party system on the national level, which is an inevitable characteristic of tyrannies and dictatorships everywhere, and that the Democratic primaries become the equivalent of the election, assuming that the Republicans even bother having primaries any longer. (Many states, cities, and counties already have a one-party system, and you can generally tell which they are by measuring their level of incompetence, corruption, and downright failure – not to mention less-exalted measures like the number of homeless and the incidence of fecal matter on public property.)


But why else, aside from their general demeanor and appearance, are the Republicans the walking dead? It's because they have become a minority party that can barely capture enough independent and “swing” votes to win elections, except in certain “deep red” locales. And why, in turn, is this? One reason is the power of ideas; the Democrats have them, and the Republicans don't. Say what you like about “AOC” for example, she has ideas. They may be wrong-headed, foolish, and delusional, and reflect profound ignorance, but they are ideas, and they serve to energize and inspire. And when revolution is in the air, ideas are all that count; cold reason and pragmatism can take a hike. And, of course, youth must triumph! By definition! Of course, the youth of the 1960s are now the grizzled veterans of the culture wars, whether they consider themselves to be on the winning side or not. They may have won many battles, but the culture war is still on or Trump would never have been elected.


Is there a Republican AOC out there anywhere? Some talk-show hosts might qualify, but they already have paying jobs and are not about to enter politics. We are, once again, in a time of revolution, the way we were in the 1960s, and the Young Turks in Congress are at the forefront, with the Old Guard forced to deal, cope, dither, rationalize, whatever it takes to hold on to their weakening grip on power. The 60s were not just about “sex, drugs, and rock & roll”, although those were the loss leaders. They were about more profound cultural changes, which took root then and are being promoted to new levels at the present time. Anyone who wonders when this process will stop – when it will be “mission accomplished” – has missed the concept of continuous revolution, of which the most prominent advocate was Chairman Mao, but which has plenty of lesser followers, including the present-day governments of Cuba and Venezuela (not to mention Antifa and BLM on the home front). For them, the revolution is not finished until Utopia is realized, and since Utopia can never be realized, the revolution is never over. Call it a full employment act for “agents of change”.


Another reason – and this is old news, but still – is that the Democrats are busy importing new constituents from other countries, primarily Central America but other places as well. And these people are willing to do work that Americans just won't do – namely reproduce. So... to over-generalize just a bit, you have self-sterilizing Democrats and liberal eunuchs bolstering their numbers by letting people in who have a vested interest in their programs, i.e. “benefits”. It's a smart move, for sure. And even if conservatives do have an edge when it comes to reproduction (it would be more accurate to say that traditionalists of many different kinds have an edge in that department), there's no way it can make up for what amounts to a siege from the Third World. There is a human wave – nay, a tsunami – coming across our southern border every day, and making its way even to the northernmost reaches of the land, hence the incidence of Mexican restaurants in places like Minot, North Dakota. History will record this as one of the great migrations of humanity, but it's hard to appreciate historical significance when you're getting overrun. (One consolation for those who don't believe in the American Empire is that this may be the biggest single factor in its demise; time will tell. There is, after all, a high correlation between the death of empires and said empires being overrun by aliens, although the precise order of events varies.)


Then you have good old generational differences – and, as always, the revolutionaries are on the young side and the conservatives are on the old side. This is not to say that the conservatives will one day be totally replaced by the revolutionaries, because even in the worst of times there are people who, somehow, manage to engage in rational thinking... but we are, basically, looking at a revolutionary society on the national level (a process which has been building slowly over a century at least, but which is now coming to full fruition) which will do everything in its power (which is considerable) to silence and neutralize all opposition, if not engage in its outright extermination. (As things stand, the liberals are busy exterminating themselves through abortion, which is ironic to say the least. So the race is on – do they cease to exist during or after the revolution? Time will tell. And if they do cease to exist, who keeps the revolution going? Oh, right – immigrants. But many of them are way more conservative and traditionally-minded than American liberals. So maybe irony will win in the end.)


So, to sum up, Trump arguably saved us from a headlong rush into this fate for four years. But it does seem inevitable; the long-term trends are what they are... and I haven't even touched on aggravating factors like the national debt, crony capitalism, environmental degradation, decaying infrastructure, the cost of empire, the collapse of our public education system, social media turning us all into robots, corruption in general, and so on. Everything that's happening at this time can be considered an accelerant; there are no counter-trends that I can think of.


So what we should be seeing very soon is the final death rattle of the Republicans on the national level – an event which will be celebrated far and wide, no doubt. And the conventional wisdom will be that Trump was what did it – he was the bull in the china shop, the disrupter, the destroyer. But if that's true, as Trump leaves the political stage the Republicans should expect to recover whatever respect they enjoyed before he took that fabled escalator ride. The problem with that idea is they didn't enjoy any such respect, except possibly in their own deluded world view. And remember that Trump's hard-core supporters didn't vote for him because he was a Republican; they voted for him because he was who he was. (He might even have won as an independent candidate, the way Ross Perot tried to do.) So without him to prop them up, the Republicans are going to collapse – said collapse being long overdue. And Trump's hard-core supporters will fade back into the fields and forests of flyover country, satisfied that, for one brief shining moment, their voices were heard and their values were honored. They will hunker down and wait out the revolution, hoping that one day they, or their descendants, will once again have a voice.




Wednesday, December 18, 2019

Life Before Trump


We are all so mesmerized these days by the events unfolding before our eyes that we find it hard to remember, or even imagine, that there was any time before the Trump Era – before that fateful ride down the escalator. But that time did exist, and it paved the way, in ways that are only now starting to be revealed, for not only current events but for a long time to come – possibly right up the end of the United States as a republic. (Note that I said “as a republic”, not necessarily the end of the United States. I can imagine – as many others apparently can – a time when there will be a country called the United States, but it will no longer be a republic, or a democracy, or anything else resembling those concepts. Many people, in fact, believe that we've already reached that point – or did reach it, years or even decades ago. But that's too broad a topic for the present, so I will press on.)

Consider, for a moment, what has already been revealed not only by numerous investigations and in numerous reports, but also (wittingly or otherwise) by the media, as well as by our own eyes and ears. The opposition against Trump and his administration did not appear overnight like some gigantic fungus in the depths of the forest. The groundwork had been laid for a long time, although the process did accelerate considerably under the last administration. One can argue all day and into the night about the when, the why, and the who, but the hard fact is that the State Department, the FBI, the intelligence community, and the military had been thoroughly politicized prior to the start of the 2016 campaign. Government agencies and entities that, in order to function as originally intended, should be as apolitical as possible had been packed with people loyal to the liberal/progressive program, to the Democrats, most recently to the Obama administration, and – above all – to the globalists and globalism. Call it preemptive... call it “insurance”... whatever, the point is that the dice were already loaded in favor of Hillary Clinton (not least, as became known, by the Democratic Party) and against whomever the Republicans managed to nominate. And the most casual survey of the political landscape at that time would have assured anyone on the liberal/Democratic/progressive side that there was no one out there with any chance of beating Hillary. So the final touches – the politicization of those few parts of the government that had not already been politicized by prior administrations was not just about getting Hillary elected; it was a way of policing up the battlefield... consolidating... establishing a future groundwork or structure – a way of solidifying the Deep State in such a thorough way that it could never be defeated or seriously threatened.

So the Deep State was already in place, and politicized, and monolithic on June 16, 2015 – secure in the knowledge that everything was under control, that another one of their own would soon be president, and that there would be a seamless transition between the Obama and Clinton II administrations.

But it goes deeper than that. The solidification of the Deep State was intended to defeat any future Republican (not to mention third-party) candidate for the presidency – and to help defeat Republican candidates for lesser offices as well. And this is not to say that old-fashioned chicanery was no longer in the toolbox; there would always be (as we saw in liberal strongholds like Florida and California) attempts to steal votes, suppress opposition votes, create favorable votes out of thin air – all the old tricks. And the Ministry of Propaganda (AKA the mainstream media) would be running at full speed as well, as would other “agents of influence” like the “entertainment” industry, academia, and social media. (Please remember that the totalitarian impulse is not compatible with close races. Overkill is the method of choice, and total defeat of the opposition is the goal.)

And then we have the state of the Republican Party at the time, which was manifesting all of its least savory traits – passivity, lack of energy, lack of charisma, lack of principles, being easily intimidated and cowed, and generally unable to come up with anything in the way of arguments other than “we're almost as compassionate as the Democrats”. So the Obama administration ran roughshod over the Republicans in an overt, public fashion, and also set up a structure – an insurance policy like unto none before – that would keep the Republicans out of the White House forever. They were winning on both overt and covert levels, in other words... and all was well, until...

Until the fateful escalator ride. And this Trump guy was clearly not just another candidate – another lukewarm body spilling out of the Republican clown car. And enough people in the Obama administration noticed this and realized that, to quote Chris Berman, “He! Could! Go! All! The! Way!” So the structures and people who were already in place to act as insurance, and as agents of gradual change, went into instant overdrive – All hands on deck! – Condition red! – and everything that has happened since then is the result. And it wasn't just that Trump was a Republican (albeit the least typical Republican ever, but he did run on their ticket for lack of a more viable option – not caring to repeat Ross Perot's mistake), but that he came right out and challenged the Deep State (although few called it that at the time) and its collaborators and facilitators in and out of government. In other words, he challenged the Establishment – the ruling elite – the status quo – pretty much everybody who was anybody. And yes, it was, and remains, an “existential threat” as long as he's in office, which is why the effort to get rid of him has not flagged. They have too much to lose – everything to lose, in fact, since political power is the be-all and end-all of their existence. Some people can take or leave politics, but not these people; for them it's like air, water, sustenance, and whole blood rolled into one; it's their life force, without which they would perish.

So... anyone who thinks the Deep State erupted out of nothing and out of nowhere, somehow magically appearing, full-blown, on Escalator Day, is mistaken. It was there, it was fully formed, armed and ready. The networks were in place, as were the power structures and the principal actors. But it was expecting to operate, as it had in the past, in a subversive, subtle fashion – not in a way so obvious and blatant that the most feeble-minded among the electorate could detect it. But Trump changed all that. He forced their hand, and over the ensuing 4 ½ years much of the weaponry, many of the tricks, much of the corruption and deceit has been exposed – partly voluntarily but mostly involuntarily. And there is more to come! And yet – amazingly enough – the world would know nothing of this if Hillary Clinton had been elected in 2016. It would all be there, fully operational, but entirely hidden. But as things stand, the denizens of the Deep State have, out of sheer necessity, appeared by the score before Congressional committees, have stood up and proudly listed their credentials and achievements, and have admitted, without the slightest hint of shame, regret, or self-doubt, that each of them is a single cell of a gigantic organism, and that organism is the power center – the only real power center – in the government – a fourth branch, in effect, compared to which the three branches we're all familiar with are a sham and a facade. They have made it abundantly clear that when it comes to a question of their programs, attitudes, and opinions vs. those of the president who is their nominal boss, it is their way or the highway (for Trump, in this case). They are, after all, the experts... they have the experience, the training, the networks, and the class consciousness necessary to run the country, and Donald Trump does not. (And, in fact, no president does, including Democrats.)

And it's this realization, more than anything else, that has eroded “trust in government” to the point where it no longer exists among significant portions of the citizenry. And this should be troubling, given our pretensions to honest, open, and above-board government... to democracy (however defined)... to “a government of, by, and for the people”. Now we see what we may have just suspected up until now (and yes, that includes “conspiracy theories” cherished by “right-wing nuts”) -- that there are “the people”, and there is government – but that the power relationship only goes in one direction – that we are no longer led by leaders, but ruled by rulers. And some, having a historical perspective and lacking protective naivete about human nature, will say that this is a natural trajectory... that it is -- tragically, perhaps, but inevitably -- what always happens to republics, democracies, governments of the people, etc. in the long run – that there is a gradual shift in power, an erosion of the rule of law, and a gradual takeover by the rich, the cynical, and the unprincipled. It's as if to say, why were we kidding ourselves that we were so different – that we were the first society in human history that could pull it off? But human nature rules in the long run, and we are living in that long run right now (despite John Maynard Keynes, in the long run we're not all dead). And of course, as I've pointed out previously, no one wants to live in “history”; war, revolution, turmoil, etc. are all well and good as long as they don't happen during my time – leave it to others (our ancestors or descendants) to deal with it. And this is especially true if current events all seem to reflect a decline – defeat and disappointment – the next generation not living as well as the previous one, etc. Then we see a rise in nostalgia, like what is happening in our time (all across the political spectrum, actually). But along with it comes a rise in optimism and a simultaneous rise in pessimism, depending on where one stands on the political spectrum. You can be both nostalgic and optimistic, or both nostalgic and pessimistic, and there are plenty of examples of each.

At this point, to be perfectly fair I have to give credit to the opposition, by which I mean the sum total of liberals/Democrats/progressives + the Deep State and its facilitators + popular culture + the media. They all describe Trump and his election as an “anomaly”, and they're right – it is. And it's an anomaly for many reasons. They will say that he shouldn't have been elected (or, in a delusional way, following Hillary Clinton's lead, that he wasn't elected, that he just somehow managed to sneak into the White House under cover of night) because... well, just because. And because he's unsavory in every way... and an outsider... and a businessman... and rich... and everything a normal, acceptable candidate is not. He never buttons his coat, and sits in chairs like some juvenile delinquent in the principal's office. And then there's the fact that his base – the people who elected him – the “deplorables” (and we have to thank Hillary Clinton for etching that term of derision into the lexicon of American politics for perpetuity, especially since it has now become a badge of honor) – were, and are, people who really shouldn't have any say in things, least of all presidential elections, because the truth is not in them. Besides which, they are racist, sexist, homophobic, transphobic, etc. etc. And who knew there were so many of them? – that's the really galling thing. I mean, if the only people who voted for Trump in 2016 had been card-carrying KKK members, or Proud Boys, or whoever, we wouldn't have had this to deal with. But when there are more white supremacists in the local family restaurant on Saturday morning than there are ex-Nazis in Paraguay, drastic measures are in order.

That's the mind set. And you can be certain that they won't make the same mistake again – i.e. they won't let any Republican with two gonads to rub together anywhere near the primaries or the election. Way too chancy. The people who laughed at Trump on Escalator Day and were laughing at him right up to Election Night have learned their lesson: Assume nothing, infiltrate everything, leave nothing to chance, and do whatever is necessary. No more mumbling to your girlfriend on e-mail about “insurance”, no – it's time to get out the WMDs.

This is why the election of 2020 is going to be so interesting (it already is, actually), no matter which hapless Democrat gets nominated and no matter who winds up running on the Republican ticket. (There is a Republican convention, remember – Trump isn't going to be a shoo-in for the nomination even assuming he makes it up to that point.) No, what will be interesting is that the Deep State and all of its allies, once unmasked, will see no point in holding back. They have been exposed now, by their own doing... they are out in the open and blatant... and there is no sense trying to scurry back under cover. So they will be raining fire and brimstone down on the Republican candidate, no matter who he or she is – partly because it's what they do, partly to take care of people who haven't already learned their lesson by seeing what they've done, and are doing, to Trump, and partly as a warning to the Republican Party that if they want to survive at all they need to be content with second-class citizenship in perpetuity. In other words, if they are content to be wallflowers and strap-hangers, fine – but don't start getting any ideas about having any real influence, because what is happening to Trump and his associates can happen to you too, under cover of night and in broad daylight. You can wind up in jail for just existing; this has to have a, let's say, chilling effect on any sort of political assertiveness, and on expressing any opinions at all that are at odds with those of the ruling elite.

There's a thin line, I suppose, between realism and pessimism. In these times they can seem to be pretty much the same thing, and maybe they are. The problems facing whoever's in charge now or in the future are so enormous, and so intractable, that to expect anything other than frustration and failure is to show a high level of delusion. Once again, history has caught up with us, as has human nature. American-style democracy may soon go the way of The New Soviet Man, or of the Ubermensch and the Master Race. And we've had a pretty good run of it, quite frankly – certainly longer than the Soviet Union or Nazi Germany, which had flaws that were too blatant from the start. We were, if you will, sustainable – but not indefinitely. This Republic was conceived by highly-intelligent, well-educated, and certainly far from ignorant men who were under few illusions about human nature. It would be interesting to find out how long they expected it to last before succumbing to degeneration and decay; who knows, they might be surprised it has lasted this long, even if in vestigial form. But they were, after all, men of ideas, and ideas only work if they are workable, and if there is sufficient political will to make them work. So again, this was the case for quite a while – way longer than the French Revolution which was similar in many ways. But that revolution was in 1789 and by 1804 they had an emperor, and in between they had a Reign of Terror and other unpleasantries. (And we were their principal inspiration, by the way – don't forget that.)

Well, we have yet to crown an emperor, although we came close in the case of FDR. Someone once joked that the American system is an odd one – it's a monarchy where we elect a new king every 4 (or 8) years. But that would be to unduly belittle monarchies, some of which have lasted for centuries if not millennia. Maybe what works is not always what's best from the point of view of poly-sci idealism.

To sum up, whatever was put in place over time that has manifested itself in the opposition is not going to go away. It won't go away when Trump leaves office, and it won't go away if a Democrat becomes president. It's a permanent fixture, and some will celebrate this fact, the way one-party rule is celebrated by fans of totalitarian regimes. Competing parties? Debate? Compromise? Way too messy. Much better to just have a single party, and a single party leader – a strongman who commands – demands – obedience from all of his faithful subjects. We forget that this is as strong an impulse – every bit as much as part of human nature – as notions of “freedom”, democracy, populism, etc. And it's a highly cultural phenomenon. The Russians, for example, apparently cannot get along without a strongman in charge; democracy is just not in their blood. The Scandinavian countries, on the other hand, are the true “people's republics”, whose leaders are so low-profile that no one knows who they are. (Do you? I certainly don't.) We have European monarchies that are, operationally, more democratic than most alleged democracies or republics. Such are the paradoxes when it comes to governments.

At this particular time in our history it's the liberals/Democrats/progressives who are all in favor of the all-powerful state, the regulatory state, totalitarianism, and what amounts to one-party rule. They seem to forget what happened to the Old Bolsheviks who, once they had outlived their usefulness, were hunted down by Stalin's henchmen and summarily shot. Their problem? They were rebels and nonconformists by nature, and too full of ideas, and those ideas started to clash with the desires of the more pragmatic (i.e., cynical) types who were rapidly filling the positions of power. There will always be revolutionaries like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who will be at the front of the parade, waving a red flag and playing an accordion. But the funny thing is that they very seldom wind up in charge. Their position is like unto that of the point man in a military operation – vital, but with low life expectancy. Sometimes they wind up as cannon fodder for the very entities that they thought were on their side, as happened to the Red Guard in China. The revolution is cannibalistic; as has been said, it always devours its own. But there's no sense in warning them, because they never listen.

So even the Deep State may not always be the property of today's “opposition”; it has its own priorities, its own needs, and its own survival strategies. One point to remember is that the Deep State is motivated solely by its need to survive and expand; otherwise it is as unprincipled, amoral, and unfeeling as a malignant tumor. It is, if you will, reptilian in nature – without compassion and unappealing except to those who see it as a pathway to power. So Democrats who celebrate the Deep State and consider it their power base might have to think again some day – but by then it will be too late. They are, after all, expendable. And the Deep State, because it's a thing and not a person, has staying power well beyond the life span of any one individual. One may even say that it is given birth by war, and nourished by conflict and strife; and if this is the case, its origins followed very closely on the origins of the Republic.

Now, maybe all of this is fine with you. Maybe living under the watchful eye of Big Brother (as currently manifested in the social media, communications, and the intelligence community) is your idea of the good life. If so, then you're quite fortunate, because you're already living in a world tailored to your tastes, and about to live in a world even more so. This will be a cause for celebration. For certain other people, however, this is not the ideal; it's not what they voted for and it's not the world they want to live in. And – most importantly – they're not going away. They have become visible, they have an identity and cohesiveness that's every bit a match for the opposition. The clouds have lifted, and we now, at long last, see that there are two Americas (and maybe more than two), two different world views... two different worlds, in effect. Those worlds are colliding now, in a way that is more open and obvious than ever. The American public is now thoroughly politicized; no one is neutral, no one is “undecided”. We are all “woke”, but in different and opposing ways. (Did you think “wokeness” was limited to just one end of the political scale? Think again. If it's a good thing for one group, then it's a good thing for other groups as well. Otherwise, it's just another word for tyranny.)

I, for one, think the current flood of revelations is a good thing – as stressful, time-consuming, and energy-consuming as it may be. The marketplace of ideas has finally come to pass as somewhere everyone can shop, not just activists and intellectuals. And who knows, if enough people become interested in politics they might also become interested in philosophy; wouldn't that be something! Because politics is, after all, a manifestation of ethics, which, in turn, is a manifestation of philosophy, which, in turn, is a manifestation of our view of man and mankind – of his origins, nature, and ultimate fate.

The downside, of course, is we have to live in a time of war – a war of words, at least. That, and pretty much every negative emotion in the book – which tends to swamp and distract from everything else, things that might be more worthwhile to the individual and, in the long run, to society. But it's a rite of passage that we have to go through – not necessarily in every generation but often enough. Societies re-define themselves now and then, at least on the political and social level if not on the deeper levels of faith, tradition, and custom. Post-empire England is still England. Post-Soviet Russia is still Russia. Post-Maoist China is still China. And so on. (The post-Confederate South is still the South, much to the dismay of non-Southerners.) Of course those were more coherent cultures to begin with, whereas we take great pride in our “diversity”. But that's also our weakness. What it means is that we lack the connective tissue needed to weather storms such as the present one, and come out in one piece rather than in shambles – divided, therefore ready to be conquered. The United States has become disunited, and the great American melting pot turns out to be more of a stew pot. So yes, once this crisis is past we may find that we are no longer the same, even on levels we always thought were permanent and solid. We may, indeed, descend to a more primitive condition of warring tribes. (It's already happening in our large cities.) If so, it will take a government even more powerful, all-seeing, and all-knowing than the one we have now to keep things together – if that's even considered worthwhile. And it may not be, as witness the increasing incidence of anarchy and “no-go zones” in our large cities. The globalists of this world don't want a strong United States with any sort of national pride; they want a muscular but dim-witted and compliant servant to do their bidding – and they already have it to some extent, but it's likely to become even more so in the future.

And once again, if this is OK with you, then fine. Go ahead and cast your lot with the globalists and see how satisfying it is. But what does it take to completely suppress all needs and desires for the eternal verities – home and hearth, family, pride in work, faith, sense of place, and, yes, ethnic and racial identity as a source of cohesion and loyalty rather than a mere political weapon? These are signs of the Natural Man, whereas loyalty to globalism, totalitarianism, and authoritarianism is a sign of – what? I would call it despair. Of giving up, of being less than fully human. Of basically opting out of the human race in favor of a subhuman existence. But it's the sort of despair that will not confine itself to the individual. People who have lost whatever it is that makes them human will waste no time before taking the same thing away from others, by persuasion or by force. The impulse to share the misery and the fear is something we see every day and everywhere in the public forum. It is a sign of weakness and vulnerability. It indicates that we have been conquered from within – and a people that is conquered from within will soon be conquered from without.

Corollary: The Deep State = The Regulatory State = The Surveillance State = The Perpetual Warfare State.

These are four heads of the same beast. They are not identical, but are highly interdependent and symbiotic. No one of them can operate effectively without the others. For example:

  • The Deep State depends as much on regulations as on laws for its existence. Laws merely provide the broad outlines; they have to be filled in by regulations. This is why Trump's efforts to reduce the number of regulations are seen as such a threat.
  • Regulations are designed primarily to regulate, control, and restrict the activities of the citizenry. Without surveillance, it would be difficult to assess whether regulations were being adhered to.
  • Perpetual warfare requires the Deep State for implementation, and surveillance in order to insure that the citizenry are “with the program” and are not developing an aversion to perpetual war.
  • Since the Deep State and the Perpetual Warfare State are inseparable, it's foolish to be against “big government” but in favor of war, as the neocons are.  War is impossible without the Deep State, a highly-regulated economy and industrial base, and surveillance.  Every war we've ever fought shows this, and yet there are people who don't believe that's it's necessarily the case.
  • It's also foolish to protest against surveillance but be in favor of big government. Big government naturally gives rise to surveillance as a means of determining the level of cooperation of the citizenry. And, the Surveillance State, over time, becomes an increasingly large portion of the Deep State. One reason the Soviet Union collapsed is that half the citizens were employed spying on the other half.
There are many more interconnections. The point is that it is, ultimately, all one thing, so we each have a choice – we can be for all of them or none of them. Anything else is irrational, illogical, and a symptom of delusional thinking.


Wednesday, October 23, 2019

Welcome to My Nightmare


Last night I had the strangest dream. It was November of 2020 and I was in a voting booth, and I looked down at the ballot for the president, and the only two names on it were Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney. Then I woke up bathed in sweat with my heart pounding, and it took me a while to realize that this was not only a nightmare, but it was a nightmare that could very well come true!

Here we are, 12 months plus change from the 2020 election, and who is positioning himself to run for the Republican nomination? None other than the loser from 2012. And he is bolstering his “Never Trumper” credits on a daily basis, standing up, like Superman, for “truth, justice, and the American way” against treachery, treason, and criminality (not to mention bad manners and bad hair). And of course part of his plan is that Donald Trump will, in fact, be out office by November of 2020, and it matters little how or why – the main thing is that Romney will by that time be seen as the salvation of the Republican Party – the man who can set things right and rid them of the taint of Trump. What will he have to offer the American public as an incentive to not only vote, but to vote for him, other than the fact that he is not Donald Trump? Nothing in particular, just the same old boring mainstream Republican pap, which typically features pleas along the lines of “We're almost as compassionate as the Democrats.” Which is not a winning formula, as had been amply demonstrated already. Romney will run as the anti-Trump and his platform will be, basically, to pledge that the Republicans will never never never, and we mean it, nominate anyone even remotely like Trump ever again. Great – but the Democrats already occupy that territory, so why not just vote for them and be certain? (And by the way, if you think the Democrats/liberals/leftists would ever give the Republicans credit for ousting Trump – in the event that occurs – think again. The Republicans will be forced to live a life of austerity and penance for generations to come. Which, in turn, is saying that they will be rendered extinct on the national level, leaving a gap to be filled by – whom? But that's a topic for another day.) (And also by the way, if not Romney, who? Does anyone even remember who was in the gaggle of Republican candidates who fell, one by one, to the Trump tidal wave in 2016? And has anyone heard anything from them since? The fact that Romney, for all his faults, is willing to stand up and be counted at this point may be all he needs in the way of credentials.)

What about Hillary, then? She is rapidly moving from the impossible and unthinkable into at least the “buzz” category, and has, of late, been much more vocal in her opposition to Trump (although she's been making excuses for why she lost since Election Night 2016). Add to this the impression that she and Joe Biden are the only halfway normal human beings in the bunch, the rest being delusional on some level or just plain frauds. (And doesn't it say something about that motley crew that Hillary, by comparison, can appear normal? “Sad”, as Trump would say.) Then we have three very important facts: (1) The Clintons and Obama still control the Democratic Party, no matter how many empty suits pretend to be in charge; and (2) The Deep State political machine that Obama and Hillary put in place is intact, alive and well, and eager to, once again, enter the fray (actually, they never left it); and (3) The mainstream media are more fanatically anti-Trump than ever, as is the “entertainment” industry.

The only bump in the road should Hillary capitulate to all of her adoring admirers and declare for the presidency again is the basket of already-declared candidates, who have already expended considerable time and money on their campaigns, with the election still more than a year away. They are likely to be somewhat upset should Hillary ride into the Democratic convention on a white charger and insist on being nominated by popular acclaim. But you can be sure that they will fall into line with nary a peep, the way poor old Bernie did in 2016 even though he knew he'd been cheated. As a number of commentators have pointed out, the Democrats' strength is in their unity; they may have their occasional squabbles, but when the chips are down they always present a united front – something the Republicans have never seemed to be capable of.

So anyway, that was my nightmare – although some would prefer to call it a dream.

Footnote 1: Unlike Hillary's case, Donald Trump does not own the Republican Party. It would be more accurate to say they have disowned him. So don't expect loyalty to play any part in next year's election; in fact, disloyalty will play a much bigger part, as exemplified by Mitt Romney. The Never Trumpers are alive and well and living not only in Congress, but in the Republican Party hierarchy. Now, whether they will have the nerve to defy tradition and refuse to re-nominate Trump is another question; it kind of depends on how afraid they are of the grass roots. After all, even if Trump is denied a second term, most of them will still be in contention for re-election. I imagine we'll see a variety of responses to this dilemma. And there will be a lot of strange new respect for anyone who takes part in the mutiny even at the risk of their own political career.

Footnote 2: Hillary vs. Tulsi Gabbard – why single her out? Because she's the only one of the Democratic candidates who has been making libertarian-type noises. And in Hillary World, libertarian = defiance of rightful authority (i.e., her) and skepticism regarding overseas adventures (vs. the Democrats' newfound respect for endless war) – among many other things, no doubt. So Tulsi has to go. But that's not as much of an issue as the fact that Hillary is already engaged in a debate with a declared Democratic candidate; maybe she felt that Tulsi was the lowest-hanging fruit, and thus a good test case, considering the number of other candidates Hillary would have to run off the road in order to win the nomination. And as for Jill Stein, since Hillary is now blaming her and the Green Party for her loss in 2016, the Greens have to be neutralized by being identified as Russian puppets.

Footnote 3: As I've said before, Trump basically threw the Republican Party a lifeline by winning in 2016. The problem is, they refused to take hold of it, so they maintained their position as perpetual losers who are rendered acutely uncomfortable by winning. Now, when it comes to 2020, if Trump wins with or without their support, it will create another opportunity to take hold of the same lifeline, and I imagine that will be rejected as well. If Trump (or some other Republican) loses in 2020, the Republican Party is doomed on the national level, for the simple reason that “they” – the opposition – will never forgive the Republicans for having nominated Trump in 2016, never mind that many of them opposed him and have dug in their heels on his programs ever since. And the idea of the Democrats, and the opposition in general, giving the “Never Trumpers” in the Republican Party “credit”? Ha! They will be flushed down the toilet along with all the rest. (Who knows, maybe on some level the Democrats see the Republican “Never Trumpers” as being disloyal, and disloyalty is the greatest sin a Democrat can commit – as amply demonstrated by Bernie's abject capitulation to Hillary in 2016.)

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

The Republican Party post-Trump


I briefly considered being a wise-ass and just posting this title followed by nothing but a blank page. But I decided that would constitute a disservice to my loyal fans (ahem!) so am going to flesh out the idea a bit.

The point being that the Republicans do have a future, but just not on the national level. They will continue to be players in various redoubts across the fruited plain – not including the coasts, of course, nor various liberal enclaves in flyover country (cities controlled by Democrats plus university towns). They will enjoy dominance in some state legislatures and may be elected governors – although how much good it will do is questionable, since judges everywhere seem committed to reinforcing the “progressive” agenda at all costs. And they will, of course, be active at the county, small city, town, and village level. But on the national level I consider them the walking dead, and here's why.

But first a comment. Now and then someone – not necessarily a disgruntled Republican, it could be a liberal engaging in triumphalism – will contend that Donald Trump killed the Republican Party by, first, having the unmitigated gall to enter the Republican primaries in 2016, then to be nominated (aided by the Russians, no doubt), and then to be elected (ditto). And Republicans ever since then have been wringing their hands that here's this Godzilla-like creature in their midst who's ruining everything and giving Republicans a bad name, and that the nation will never forgive the Republicans for having foisted Trump off on them, and that this spells doom for generations to come, et cetera.

I have a slightly different take on this. My opinion is that Trump actually saved the Republican Party from its own boring, colorless incompetence... injected new life into it (or tried to)... and kept it, basically, alive for four more years (or however long) since it was at death's door by the end of the Obama administration, and a Hillary victory would have been the coup de grace (or coup de disgrace, whatever). The problem is that most Republicans, and especially the “never Trumpers”, would disagree with this, and contend that the party would be in much better shape now if it hadn't been forced to, somehow, support, or at least not oppose, the bulk of Trump's initiatives. Party loyalty is, of course, party loyalty, not loyalty to any one person; all we have to do is go back to the Watergate era to find confirmation of that. (And at a slightly earlier time, a lot of Democrats bailed on LBJ.) But sometimes party loyalty involves compromise – doing what you have to do. And yet there were, and are, people who disagree, the foremost example being John McCain, who took an active role in subverting the Trump administration from Day One.

But the point is that Trump, simply by being who he is and doing what he did, at least kept the Republican “brand” on the market, even though it was an operation not unlike the process of keeping a disembodied brain alive in a jar like in some horror movie. (Except in the case of the Republicans, he was keeping a body alive without a brain.)

So Trump gave the Republicans a new lease on life, except they didn't want it and didn't appreciate it. They would rather be dead (as a party) than be seen as supporting Trump, as many of them said quite explicitly during the 2016 campaign. Distance from Trump = virtue and respectability, is the message. He is as much an outsider to them as he is to the liberals/Democrats/progressives.

All of which is going to make a very interesting election season next year. Assuming that Trump survives impeachment, and doesn't simply leave office of his own free will (a very real possibility in my opinion, but not too many other people seem to have considered it), the Republicans will be faced with a bizarre dilemma – let him run again (primaries, convention, campaign) even though their support for him is lukewarm at best, and in most cases nonexistent – or call an end to the Trump Era by either not letting him into the primaries, or into the convention, i.e. by not nominating him for a second term. They are, after all, already feeling the pain of having lost the House of Representatives, which they blame squarely on Trump... and their chances of regaining it next year are nil, and they stand a good chance of losing the Senate as well, which they will also be happy to blame on Trump.

So what are they supposed to do? Hang on to Trump (or allow him to hang onto them), as troublesome as he is, even if it means losing all control of Congress and reasserting their status as irrelevant and moribund? Or try someone new and hope that all will be forgiven, and that they will be restored to (this time legitimate) power in the White House, and win back the Senate as well?

And if not Trump, which candidate is going to save the day for the Republicans? I don't see anyone out there who has even the vaguest presidential “vibes”. If they stick with tradition, I guess they could nominate Mike Pence, but like Gerald Ford in 1976 no amount of decontamination and no number of hot showers is going to rid him of the “cooties” of his old boss. So what will most likely happen is that they will, in a state of tacit despair, nominate some empty suit who can't possibly win just as a place filler, the way they nominated Bob Dole in 1996 and Mitt Romney in 2012 just to stay in the game. “Hey, it's not our fault, we nominated a fairly normal guy this time.” And then they get to return to the soporific creature comforts of minority status, except this time for keeps. Which means, incidentally, that the U.S. finally capitulates and converts to a one-party system on the national level, which is an inevitable characteristic of tyrannies and dictatorships everywhere, and that the Democratic primaries become the equivalent of the election, assuming that the Republicans even bother having primaries any longer. (Many states, cities, and counties already have a one-party system, and you can generally tell which they are by measuring their level of incompetence, corruption, and downright failure – not to mention less-exalted measures like the number of homeless and the incidence of fecal matter on public property.)

But why else, aside from their general demeanor and appearance, are the Republicans the walking dead? It's because they have become a minority party that can barely capture enough independent and “swing” votes to win elections, except in certain “deep red” locales. And why, in turn, is this? One reason is the power of ideas; the Democrats have them, and the Republicans don't. Say what you like about “AOC”, she has ideas. They may be wrong-headed, foolish, and delusional, and reflect profound ignorance, but they are ideas, and they serve to energize and inspire. And when revolution is in the air, ideas are all that count; cold reason and pragmatism can take a hike. And, of course, youth must triumph! By definition! Of course, the youth of the 1960s are now the grizzled products of the culture wars, whether they consider themselves to be on the winning side or not. They may have won many battles, but the culture war is still on or Trump would never have been elected.

Is there a Republican AOC out there anywhere? Some talk-show hosts might qualify, but they already have paying jobs and are not about to enter politics. We are, once again, in a time of revolution, the way we were in the 1960s, and the Young Turks in Congress are at the forefront, with the Old Guard forced to deal, cope, dither, rationalize, whatever it takes to hold on to their weakening grip on power. (The 60s were not just about “sex, drugs, and rock & roll”, although those were the loss leaders. They were about more profound cultural changes, which took root then and are being promoted to new levels at the present time. Anyone who wonders when this process will stop – when it will be “mission accomplished” – has missed the concept of continuous revolution, of which the most prominent advocate was Chairman Mao, but which has plenty of lesser followers, including the present-day governments of Cuba and Venezuela. For them, the revolution is not finished until Utopia is realized, and since Utopia can never be realized, the revolution is never over. Call it a full employment act for “agents of change”.)

Another reason – and this is old news, but still – is that the Democrats are busy importing new constituents from other countries, primarily Central America but other places as well. And these people are willing to do work that Americans just won't do – namely reproduce. So... to over-generalize just a bit, you have self-sterilizing Democrats, and liberal eunuchs, bolstering their numbers by letting in people who have a vested interest in their programs, i.e. “benefits”. It's a smart move, for sure. And even if Republicans do have an edge when it comes to reproduction (it would be more accurate to say that traditionalists of many different kinds have an edge in that department), there's no way it can make up for what amounts to a siege from the Third World. There is a human wave – nay, a tsunami – coming across our southern border every day. History will record this as one of the great migrations of humanity, but it's hard to appreciate historical significance when you're getting overrun. (One consolation for those who don't believe in the American Empire is that this may be the biggest single factor in its demise; time will tell.)

Then you have good old generational differences – and, as always, the revolutionaries are on the young side and the conservatives are on the old side. This is not to say that the conservatives will some day be totally replaced by the revolutionaries, because even in the worst of times there are people who, somehow, manage to engage in rational thinking... but we are, basically, looking at a revolutionary society on the national level (a process which has been building slowly over a century at least, but which is now coming to full fruition) which will do everything in its power (which is considerable) to silence and neutralize all opposition, if not engage in its outright extermination. (As things stand, the liberals are busy exterminating themselves through abortion, which is ironic to say the least. So the race is on – do they cease to exist before, during, or after the revolution? Time will tell. And if they do cease to exist, who keeps the revolution going?)

So, to sum up, Trump arguably saved us from a headlong rush into this fate for... maybe not even four years, depending. But it does seem inevitable, and that applies in any case – Trump getting re-elected, some other Republican getting elected, or a Democrat getting elected in 2020. The long-term trends are what they are... and I haven't even touched on aggravating factors like the national debt, crony capitalism, environmental degradation, infrastructure, the cost of empire, the collapse of our public education system, social media turning us all into robots, corruption in general, and so on. Everything else that's happening at this time can be considered an accelerant; there are no counter-trends that I can think of. Trump's hard-core supporters will continue to be so until the day he moves back to his golden palace atop Trump Tower, but they're not going to matter as long as Trump loses the narrow edge he achieved in various states in 2016. Those weren't all Trump supporters; there were also “never Hillary” voters in the mix. But they won't be a factor next year (unless she runs again – and yes, she's thinking about it). And there were also independents who cared for neither candidate but figured Trump might be preferable, or more palatable, for some reason. (For one thing, he's rich enough not be bribed, which is no small consideration.) Well, now he's had a chance to prove himself, at least in terms of initiatives, if not actual accomplishments – and it's up to people to decide whether that's good enough, and I suspect that enough of them will decide that it's not good enough and thus flip some of those states that delivered for Trump in 2016. As always in any election, the hard core tends to remain the hard core; what changes (and who the candidates are really trying to appeal to) are the independents, “undecideds”, and plain pragmatists – how does it affect my quality of life, my pocketbook, etc.? These are what we might call the non-idea people – not that they're uneducated or ignorant, simply that they are not into ideas or ideology. They are bottom line-oriented, in other words. And yet they're the ones who really count. Trump can have all the enthusiastic, high-energy rallies he wants – as can Biden, Sanders, Warren, Butti-whatever, et al. – but a minority is still a minority. I'm not even convinced that the Democrats can patch together a majority out of true believers either; that's why they need to recruit new voters from other countries. Those voters, I imagine, are much more pragmatic and “bottom line” than most citizens; if you can vote other people's money into your own pocket you'd be a fool not to. Traditional American notions of self-sufficiency are simply not on their radar.

So what we may well see next year, in one fashion or another, is the final death rattle of the Republicans on the national level – an event which will be celebrated far and wide, no doubt. And the conventional wisdom will be that Trump was what did it – he was the bull in the china shop, the disrupter, the destroyer. But if that's true, once Trump leaves the political stage the Republicans should expect to recover whatever respect they enjoyed before he took that fabled escalator ride. The problem with that idea is they didn't enjoy any such respect, except possibly in their own deluded world view. And remember that Trump's hard-core supporters didn't vote for him because he was a Republican; they voted for him because he was who he was. (He might even have won as an independent candidate, the way Ross Perot tried to do.) So without him to prop them up, the Republicans are going to collapse – said collapse being long overdue. And Trump's hard-core supporters will fade back into the fields and forests of flyover country, satisfied that, for one brief shining moment, their voices were heard and their values were honored. They will hunker down and wait out the revolution, hoping that one day they, or their descendants, will once again have a voice.