Sunday, May 30, 2021

UFOs Are Back, Ho Hum

 

I'm not a UFO expert, and I don't play one on TV either. But for some reason, UFOs are in the news again, and this time it's not just the usual suspects – you know, the stereotypical tinfoil-hat wackos who claim to have been abducted and subjected to bizarre surgical procedures, etc. – but, arguably, establishment types like the U.S. military, which has quit referring personnel who claim to have seen a UFO to the post psychiatrist but is now, apparently, taking these things seriously. Of course there's a long and colorful history of the whole UFO matter which, among other things, has inspired great numbers of sci-fi movies and TV shows – and the military, especially the Air Force, has always been depicted as the “bad guy” – skeptical, dogmatic, conservative, secretive, and so on. And the popular culture – not limited to sci-fi fans – has generally assumed that whenever the Air Force denies that something exists, that automatically means it does exist, and that the military is “hiding something” – advanced weapon systems or actual aliens, or both – from the American public and from our enemies.


One overarching theme over the years (decades) has been that UFOs, in some mysterious way, were part of the Cold War. This notion was supported by the fact that most even semi-credible sightings were in the vicinity of military installations, test sites, military aircraft, or warships. So the idea was that UFOs were, indeed, either data-gathering instruments or advanced weapon systems – but whose? If ours, the military wanted to disguise the fact, understandably. If someone else's, the military wanted to keep whoever it was from realizing that we had detected their advanced systems... or, the government wanted to keep the public from being upset by the thought that the Russkies might have weaponry far superior to ours. So in that sense, the “little green men” thing may have been no more than a red herring (so to speak) – a harmless diversion that was allowed to run its course, and an excuse to shut down all inquiry and speculation (because “only a nut would believe...” etc.). (Now why the specter of being invaded by Martians is less scary to the public than the notion of the USSR having weapon systems far superior to our own is another matter. But that depends to some extent on one's view of what aliens from another planet represent.) (See my post, “Jonesin' for Aliens”, July 25, 2015.)


But then the Cold War ended – or so it was assumed – back when the Soviet Union broke up. But did UFOs disappear? Apparently not. They keep coming back, like those cohorts of locusts – they're in the news, then they aren't. They generate societies, meetings, publications, then the whole thing fades away. Pop culture gives us “The X-Files”, then ratings fall off and the show closes. And then the whole thing starts over again. And so on. So yes, the UFO thing comes and goes, and the military can never seem to make up its mind as to whether they're real or just a symptom of Air Force pilots suffering from oxygen deprivation leading to hallucinations. So years go by when they don't talk about it, and then you get the kind of revival of interest we're seeing now.


But then we run into another interesting angle – one that has been part of the story since the first “flying saucers” were sighted soon after World War II. And that is what I'll call the quality of evidence. Now, it was easy enough to understand, in the early days, how photos or films of alleged UFOs were always grainy and blurred (not unlike photos of the Loch Ness Monster or Bigfoot) – whoever was taking the pictures (and they were nearly always photos, not radar captures) was probably using a Kodak Brownie or 8mm home movie camera, and was trembling with excitement (or fear) (or dreams of collecting big bucks from the National Enquirer for exclusive rights to the footage).


But that was then. Nowadays, the military has optics so advanced that they can read someone's poker hand from 50,000 feet (or so I'm told). Add high-speed cameras, digitization which yields extremely fine-grained images, and other improvements – and yet the imagery we see in the news is still as grainy and blurred as anything that came out of the 1950s. There's obviously something wrong here. And this is just traditional optics – hasn't radar made just a few advances during that time as well? And then you have infrared optics. And so on. And yet, the level of ambiguity of UFO images (whether moving or still) doesn't seem to have advanced much beyond, once again, the Loch Ness or Bigfoot stage. Are you really going to declare a national emergency based on images resembling first-generation arcade games? Hopefully not.


Then we have the “noise” factor when it comes to electronic systems. Yes, they are sensitive – almost too sensitive at times. They pick up everything, the way microphones used to do in movies before voice-over and Foley artists took over. Now, you might say, isn't static just the same as white noise – i.e., chaotic and incapable of generating anything resembling an actual image? Not necessarily. (I commented to someone recently that I can see stuff resembling UFO footage when I drive with a dirty windshield (especially at night).)


And what if... just what if somebody or something is “trolling” us and generating signals made to look like supersonic, ultra-agile UFOs when in reality it's coming out of some guy's garage in Lubbock, Texas? I mean, there are plenty of geeks out there with time on their hands – what could be more fun than coming up with something that will freak out the military? Not actual physical objects, but signals aimed at the electronics of military aircraft (or ships, in some cases)? Or -- any chance that the Russkies are back to their old tricks and just want to distract us from focusing on whatever they're up to in their own weapon development programs? Make us distrust our lyin' eyes and radar, in other words? And as far as our “system security” goes, well... if you can hack into a system in order to steal information, you can hack into the same system in order to generate fake information.


And now Congress, waking from its usual slumber, is demanding – OK, asking – OK, politely requesting – the intel community to tell them all it knows about UFOs. Riiiight. When's the last time the intel people told anyone in Congress all that it knows about anything? I mean, would you? Might as well relate your history of STDs to the town gossip. The intel people have been down this road before – they'll blow smoke up the appropriate butts, toss out a few bones, and we'll wind up with a bigger nothingburger than the Durham Report. And so it goes. “Nothing to see here, dumb asses – go back to your silly power games.” And the amazing thing is, everyone in the establishment will be satisfied. Another round in the endless game, now let's head for the nearest watering hole.


There are so many possibilities here, but the main point is that if the military, or anyone else, wants to convince anyone in the public, or in Congress, on this point they'd better come up with something better than a handful of glowing green Fritos floating around against a noisy black and green background – or a black jellybean dropping into the ocean. But this isn't going to happen, because – for whatever reason – those in charge prefer to keep things ambiguous and mysterious – interesting, a bit scary perhaps, but not enough to cause mass hysteria like Orson Welles' “War of the Worlds”. In this sense, it's like everything else in government – if you're being paid to solve a problem, the very last thing you want to do is actually solve it.


There are political games – and mind games as well – being played around this issue, but there's nothing really new about it and we don't seem to know any more than we did 70-plus years ago. Or if we do, no one can be bothered to tell us.


 

Tuesday, May 4, 2021

Toward a Gender-Free Military


Maybe you can make some sense out of all this; I sure can’t. What I do know is that the military -- and the Army in particular -- has been walking a thin, wobbly, and vaporous line between “readiness” and social policy -- including gender issues -- since at least the late 1970s (just to show you how easy it is to solve a problem once you set your mind to it). At that time, in response to political pressure – which was, in turn, a response to the feminist and women’s rights movements (overlapping but not identical) – the Army gradually expanded the role of women from "combat service support" to "combat support" to combat, i.e. actually carrying a gun and being willing, able, and allowed to engage the enemy. And without detailing the myriad issues that came up in the process, I’ll mention a single issue, which was, if you will, the rock which the good ship Women in Combat inevitably ran into -- namely upper body strength. Try as they might, the Army just couldn’t do much about that issue beyond basic physical conditioning. (And don’t bother me about women boxers, wrestlers, and body builders -- #1, there aren’t enough of them to go around, and #2, how many of them are interested in joining the Army? And also, don’t bother me about the heroines in Quentin Tarantino films. That’s fiction. Say it with me -- fiction. OK?)


(And by the way, the upper body strength problem, as obvious as it might seem to the layman, is something the researchers and “medics” hesitated to bring up at first, due to the political atmosphere at the time. It was “close hold” – not to be published or, heaven forbid, briefed to the press. Eventually the Army had to, grudgingly, admit it was for real, and that it wasn't going away. We see the latest iteration of the overall problem in this article.)


So yes, there has been an ebb and flow of this issue for over 40 years now, and guess what, the human body -- of both the male and female varieties -- has not changed, morphed, or evolved in all that time, despite the best efforts of “science”, experts, political activists, politicians, Olympic coaches, Big Pharma, and anyone else with an interest in the matter. The pendulum has swung, basically, between combat readiness and all that it entails, and social change (either keeping up with it or being in the vanguard) -- usually depending on the political party of whoever is president at the time. The social change agenda never really goes away, but it occasionally takes a back seat to the outlandish idea of actually winning wars -- or at least being ready to. At other times, the senior military is required to, with one voice, preach the urgent necessity of social change (of whatever variety is in fashion at the moment), and anyone who dares speak up in favor of war fighting capability is instantly squelched (and relieved of duty if they persist).


So to return to the present iteration exemplified by this article (and I’ve long since lost track of the number of iterations over the decades), the Army is clearly in a new and more extreme dilemma than in the past. It now has to respond to a new gospel, promoted every minute of every hour by the liberal/progressive/”woke” community (you know, the people who are running the government now), namely that not only are there no significant differences between men and women, but that gender doesn’t even exist -- that it has no scientific basis, and that it’s no more than a “social construct” devised by men in order to keep women down and in their place.


But wait -- if gender doesn’t exist, then neither do “men” and “women” -- so who is it that is keeping whom down? It must be people who “identify” as men keeping people who “identify” as women down. But if so, where did these outlandish “identities” come from if there’s no basis for them in reality? Did millions of people all have the same dream? Or did they all drop bad acid?


So we see that the headlong rush to absurdity is already “mission accomplished”. But apparently the Army hasn’t thought these matters through as thoroughly as they should. So let’s, for now, stick with their frame of reference, which is that “men” and “women”, although they are fictional creatures, still have to be factored into policy considerations.


So what the Army seems to be saying, according to this article, is:


  1. Gender neutral” fitness tests are a good and necessary thing. BUT…

  2. Men and women (those words! Pass the smelling salts!) need separate ranking systems to account for basic biological differences (heresy!). But don't separate ranking systems cancel out gender neutrality? How can you have both?

  3. Equal opportunity is important, BUT…

  4. So is ability to meet combat requirements. And when these two values come into conflict – which they have done repeatedly over the years – it is typically “solved” on a political basis, i.e. one value is promoted and the other is forgotten – at least until the ruling party changes, or there is a Congressional investigation (spurred on by the media).

  5. Fitness of men and women will be measured on the same scale, BUT…

  6. Each sex (I guess they mean gender) will have its own tier. How this differs in any significant way from each sex having its own scale is beyond me.

  7. A “baseline standard” that applies to both men and women is needed, BUT…

  8. It should not force men and women to directly compete. So obviously, different baselines are needed, which means there is no single baseline, which means there is no baseline standard. BUT...

  9. Problem solved! A minimum score of 360 will apply to all genders (no matter how many official genders there are now or are in the planning stage). That sounds eminently fair. BUT…

  10. Biological reality (heresy!) kicks in and requires that a five-level system be brought into play. This “separates the top-performing women from the men”. How? This is where the discussion drifts off into La-La Land. What they may mean is that, even though 360 is the minimum fitness score for any gender, the assignment of levels will be based on a percentage within gender.

  11. So let’s see… 360 is the minimum, which applies to all. But there is a separate tier system for men vs. women, based on percentage? This is kind of what we used to call, in college, grading “on a curve”, which means that rather than absolute grades (A, B, C, etc.) based on the number of correct answers, you decide that a certain percentage of students are going to get an A, or a B, or whatever, no matter what. And as you might guess, the arguments as to the fairness of this have been going on for decades, if not lifetimes.

  12. But to return to La-La Land: If levels are defined by percentages, how can it be that “the respective percentages of male and female soldiers across the five levels could be significantly different in terms of actual fitness test scores.” In other words, the levels defined by percentages may turn out to have different percentages. Huh ??

  13. And yet… and yet… “men and women are technically scored the same”. And “it is still age- and gender-neutral”. (How did age get into it all of a sudden?)

  14. Oh, and then we have the sidebar item dealing with body fat and pregnancy. (Wait until they find out that men can get pregnant!)

  15. BUT... it turns out that none of this matters, because soldiers of the future will not be doing battle on a muddy, dusty battlefield or in a mosquito-laden swamp using hand-held weapons. Instead, they'll be sitting in air-conditioned bunkers operating robots by remote control. That's what it means when someone says “some so-called 'cyber warriors' may not necessarily need to meet the same requirements”... and “we're not really worried about their physical capabilities”... and “wars of the future are not going to be fought like wars of the past.” (That last statement is the ultimate truism. No war has ever been fought precisely the way prior wars were fought. There have been incremental advances in the technology of warfare throughout recorded history.)


So which is it? Is combat readiness about physical fitness or is it about “what's between their ears”? Can we relax about physical fitness because all the really important jobs in future conflicts will be done by people double-timing it on a keyboard? And for that matter, why can't the “cyber warriors” be morbidly obese, if all they are required to do in the way of physical exertion is sit in front of a screen all day?


So... if you're head's spinning about all of this, join the club. Frankly, I feel sorry for the military leadership at times like these, because they are answering to just too damn many people – a president, an administration, a secretary of defense, a secretary of the army, Congress, the media, the public, ordinary soldiers who never tire of complaining about things... and think, this is just part of their job (in most cases). They also have to think about little things like weapons procurement, logistics, training, strategy and tactics, regulations, inter-service rivalries... and, at the top level, politics and foreign relations. The list is pretty much endless. And this is all while, unlike other citizens, the military leadership is hesitant to come out and publicly opine that the people setting the ever-morphing and conflicting priorities are idiots and fools. This has to have a negative impact on their blood pressure, cholesterol levels, blood sugar, muscle tone, and what not. But hey, they volunteered for this – “You're in the Army now, you're not behind the plow”, etc. No one now in the military joined at the point of a gun (so to speak).


I imagine that there are plenty of military commanders who wake up in the middle of the night and think, “Of course men and women are different! Who are these maniacs who think they're the same – and who put them in charge of the government?” But then they reflect that if they go to work the next day and express this thought out loud to anyone, it's bye-bye military job, hello trailer park in Ozark, Alabama. (Or – maybe the ones who figured this out have already bailed and taken a job with a firmer grip on reality.)


And to call this particular dilemma intractable is hardly an exaggeration. It's been going on for decades now – let's say two decent military careers' worth of time – and it's no closer to being solved than it was back when hippies quit burning draft cards because the draft had been suspended. A cynic might say “If there's no solution, there's no problem” – true in one sense, but then why does it continue to be such an obsession, not only within military ranks but in Congress and the media (whenever it comes around in the endless whirlpool of Section B stories). So with or without a solution, the amount of sheer waste and stress cannot be dismissed, and continues to eat away at real readiness – and rest assured that many eyes around the world are watching, and in between chuckles are plotting ways to take advantage of our collective neuroses.


So anyway, here it is – and good luck making any sense of it:


PressReader.com - Your favorite newspapers and magazines.





Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Thinking About Open Borders

 
First let us define our terms.

1.  A “border” is a boundary -- a dividing point -- between… what?  States, countries, empires, kingdoms, tribes, clans… in short, between the eternal “us” and the equally-eternal “them”.  It can be a natural border like an ocean or sea, a river, a mountain range… or, on the other extreme, it can be a purely imaginary and arbitrary line -- and I would offer the way the colonial powers divvied up the Middle East and West Africa as prime examples.  Those lines were drawn for convenience and for administrative purposes as much as anything else, typically with little or no attention paid to the more traditional territories of the native tribes.  (In fact, it has been argued that, in some cases, borders of “new” nations were drawn in order to intentionally split single ethnic and religious groups into two or more parts, thus robbing them of cohesion and thus of political and economic power.)  Some of these lines are so arbitrary as to be, basically, meaningless -- a line extending off into the desert, turning into a dotted line and then disappearing altogether.  (How upsetting for the map buff with OCD!)

2.  What, then, is an “open border”?  Is it simply a border that is not closed, i.e. is not like the border between East and West Berlin during the Cold War?  That’s one possible definition, but it’s not particularly useful.  I think most people correctly think of an open border as one where anyone intending to cross it is not impeded by either the authorities of the place they are leaving or those of the place they are crossing into.  And by “impeded” I mean not only by direct intervention by border guards and the like, but by man-made barriers like walls, fences, mine fields, moats, barbed wire, and so on.  So in dealing with the present case -- our border with Mexico -- any border that one can cross, in many areas, by simply wading ankle-deep across a narrow river, or by climbing over a nonexistent fence, or going through a gap in an incomplete wall, is an open border.  Oh, but wait -- you might say -- what about all those who are met, encountered, or “apprehended”?  Can you say “catch and release”, class?  Or catch, keep in custody for a few days, then release?  Or catch, fly to some other part of the country, then release?  So yeah -- it might not feel like an open border right away to everyone who comes across, but if their chances of being released and allowed to go their own way are much greater than their chances of being held for any significant amount of time, or even returned to Mexico or their country of origin, then we have an open border, for all intents and purposes.  (And if you don’t believe me, believe President Biden, who started welcoming any and all comers into the U.S. with open arms when he was still a presidential candidate.) (And if you don’t believe him, then believe the thousands of migrants who are convinced, based on what they’ve been told or heard on TV or the Internet, that all they have to do in order to enter the U.S. is to show up at the border, preferably sporting a Biden T-shirt which puts them on the fast track to citizenship.)    

Discussion:  If you look at the world map these days, there are very few areas that are unaccounted for or “disputed”.  Every major war includes, as part of its follow-up, some sort of “claims” commission that sorts things out, almost invariably in favor of the winners.  But that usually does not mean that large numbers of people have to be forcibly evicted from one place and transplanted to some other place --- notable recent exceptions being the establishment of the State of Israel and the division of India.  And of course there are hard feelings all around, since it’s almost instinctive that anyone occupying a piece of land of whatever size -- including the most unproductive patch imaginable (I think of the rocky coast of southwestern Ireland, when the only crop that will reliably grow is gorse (think “kudzu“ except in Ireland)) -- considers it “theirs” by right (either because “we’ve always lived here”, or by right of conquest, or by having been granted the property by a benign conqueror -- or, in modern times, by treaty).

But as for borders per se, well… other than those of the natural kind, I don’t think people in ancient times, or mapmakers in Medieval times, spent a whole of time worrying about, or creating, precise artificial lines separating one group from another.  Most of the maps from back then will show names of empires, countries, and ethnic and racial groups without including lines in between.  A bit later on you can see empires, countries, tribes, etc. designated by different colored blobs, and there are almost always spaces in between -- and this is important!  Those in-between spaces have served throughout history as buffer zones… as a form of intentional ambiguity, if you will, in order to provide a bit of flexibility and avoid squabbles.  And those in-between spaces -- no man’s lands -- have a reputation, over the millennia, for being wild and dangerous -- places for robbers and brigands -- and the part of a given country that is close to these spaces is called the “frontier” -- still wild, and only a bit less dangerous.  (Note that the United States is exceptional in that its frontier moved continually from the establishment of the original thirteen colonies until the official “closing of the frontier”.  (That was the point at which the settlement from the East met the settlement from the West, in a kind of virtual golden-spike event.))

But a funny thing happened about the time “civilization” evolved, i.e. that was more than just scattered castles, forts, and strongholds with surrounding peasant villages, fields, and forests.  These clans and tribes started bumping up against one other on a regular basis, hence the need developed for better-defined boundaries… borders… lines.  I always think of Germany before the unification, with its scattering of kingdoms, dukedoms, and independent cities, with boundaries carefully demarcated so that everyone knew exactly where they lived and who their ruler was -- no more “wilderness” in other words (kind of like Washington, D.C., where there are no vacant lots because the land is too valuable, and no free parking).

The situation in the American colonies was a bit different.  If you look at maps of where Native American tribes originally lived (before many were displaced and forcibly moved) you, again, see either just names on a map with no lines, or a bunch of blobs.  But enter the land companies and surveyors, and the Bureau of Indian Affairs, and now each tribe has its very own square, or rectangle, or polygon of some sort (again, often ignoring natural topography) because, well… it’s about property, see?  And ownership.  And pioneer settlement, hunting lands, trapping lands, cattle land, farm land, fishing rights, and so on.  And in the case of the Indian reservations, they had multiple purposes:  (1) Get the Indians out of the way of the European settlers; (2) “Civilize” the Indian tribes by providing them their own territory and, hopefully, eliminating intertribal conflict (not to mention attacks on the settlers); and (3) Imposing administrative and legal controls.  

Now, some of these provisions were, clearly, expressions of the conqueror  vs. the conquered.  Some were about grabbing all of the better land and access to waterways.  Some were about safety (for the non-Indians).  And some were, very possibly, benign -- such as the establishment of European-style schools and local (tribal) governments.  (There’s a lot of revisionism going on right now with regard to the schools -- but that’s a topic for another day.)

Borders in our time are, to a greater extent than at any time in history, firmly established, with lines drawn to a degree of precision only made possible by GPS technology.  This has its advantages, no doubt… but it also means that adjoining countries, tribes, clans, ethnic groups, etc. have no more buffer zones -- they confront each other “toe to toe” on a daily basis, and the border becomes a kind of fetish, as witness the elaborate daily gate-closing ceremony on the India-Pakistan border.  There is no wiggle room -- again with the exception of those dotted lines in the desert.  (The few remaining nomadic tribes do, indeed, tend to inhabit these “dotted line” areas, and couldn't care less which “country“ they happen to be in at any given time.)  (Back in the 1960s the Bedouins could move freely back and forth between Egypt and Israel, unlike anyone else.)  But in general even the most remote areas, such as the western Himalayas, are claimed, square foot by square foot, by someone -- and usually by more than one someone (hence conflicts in places like Kashmir).

So we see that while the concept of borders is age-old in one sense, the way in which it’s expressed can be highly fluid -- or at least has been in the past.  There is nothing at all unusual about our border with Mexico, which is part natural (the Rio Grande) and part drawn lines.  What is unusual is that the border is marked by a hodgepodge of fences and incomplete walls.  You can hardly call it fortified, but it is guarded to some extent, at least… and in this sense it’s the exception rather than the rule, both historically and even in the present day.  

The first fortified border (as opposed to a fortified city) we know about was the Great Wall of China, the remains (some restored) of which can still be seen today.  But the golden age, if you will, of fortified borders has to be the period starting with World War I and extending up to the present day -- and we all know whose borders they were and are, namely those of totalitarian (fascist or communist) states.  These also have the interesting feature of being designed to keep people in, as opposed to out -- the latter a feature of our border with Mexico.

But what is the essence of borders?  What do they all have in common?  Again, it’s the age-old question of Us vs. Them.  But it’s not just Us, it’s our cities, towns, villages, farms, homes, families, resources of all sorts (forests, waterways, lakes, trade routes, and so on).  These are all things that are -- or have been until just recently -- considered worth defending, and if they are not defended, or if the defenses are inadequate, the nation or culture in question is likely to perish at the hands of an aggressor (even if the “aggressor” is no more than an overwhelmingly great number of the “tired, poor, huddled masses yearning to breathe free“ -- or to breathe at all).

But what do aggressors -- invaders -- even migrants -- want?  They want what they don’t have, or more of what they do have.  So there is an economic basis for the whole border concept -- and the greater the disparity between the invader and the invaded, the more likely the invasion is to take place, and the more difficult is it to turn back.  (I won’t go into other factors like invasion for the purpose of religious conversion, which motivated much of the Muslim conquest of North Africa and parts of the Middle East, the Balkans, and Spain.  In that case the motivation was to provide the opportunity and privilege of being converted to Islam -- not that other factors were ignored, of course.)  (And by the same token, aren’t there fringe benefits when we invade a country in order to “spread democracy” and liberate people from whatever is it they need to be liberated from?  And if there aren‘t, why do we bother (some cynic might say)?)

But to return to the usual case -- whether you’re talking about an armed invasion by a modern army or people wading across the Rio Grande, it’s always about getting what you want, which basically means taking it from someone else, i.e. the people who already live there.  This is obvious.  In the short run, it’s a zero-sum game, although in the long run… well, who knows?  What’s not so obvious is what I’ll call the equilibrium point.  Just as water seeks its own level, so does poverty -- by which I mean that the poor, needy, and oppressed go from their native land to somewhere where they won’t be as poor, needy, and oppressed -- or (important point) where they think this will be the case.  And of course, human nature being what it is, people tend to be overly hopeful and optimistic in these circumstances.  They come here seeking the Gold Mountain, and instead find new and different kinds of poverty and danger.  But at least it’s not as bad as what they left back home -- or they tell themselves that (cognitive dissonance kicks in) and decide to stay and hope for the best.  

Now, in this high-tech and electronically/digitally-saturated environment, we can assume that once someone manages to penetrate our fraying border defenses and establishes themselves somewhere, they waste no time getting back to the folks back home and providing a progress report.  We can assume that this happens on a regular basis -- and that, given that it does, whatever they tell the folks back home isn’t enough to keep more of those folks from setting out on the same journey.  The people coming across the border with Mexico today aren’t pioneers, in other words -- they’ve been paying close attention for months, or years, and have decided to try their luck.  They come in waves -- contingent on weather, levels of poverty or strife back home, and, naturally, evolving expectations as to their likelihood of success.  These people are not stupid; in fact, I suspect they are among the more clever, resourceful, and courageous members of their respective societies (being at poverty level doesn‘t reflect badly on their abilities, in other words).  And now they are encouraged by various facilitators (AKA cartels) as well as by various NGOs and our own government.  They know things have changed, but they can’t be sure if the change is permanent (not being privy to all of the political nuances in play).  So many of them may feel that it’s now or never -- and if the “now” part lasts for weeks, months, or years, so much the better.  

So what would the equilibrium point be?  It would be the point at which conditions here -- in their new environment -- have degraded to the level of the environment which they left, or, once again, they perceive it to be such.  So… does this mean that the United States has to look and feel like the Northern Triangle -- like El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala?  Well, yes -- not the entire U.S. of course, but certainly the areas where the migrants wind up.  The turning point will be the day when the newest migrant calls home and says, in effect, forget about it -- things are no better here than they are down there.  Save your strength (and your money) and stay put.

So at this point, poverty will have reached its own level and equilibrium will be achieved -- and not only that, but all of the migrant advocacy groups and open-borders promoters at all levels (including in the government) will, hopefully, admit that “fairness” has been achieved at long last -- that Americans are no longer being selfish, exclusionary, prejudiced, bigoted, racist, etc.  We welcomed the world with open arms and, guess what, the world showed up!  (Of course this assumes that open-borders advocates will be happy and satisfied when the equilibrium point is reached.  They won’t be, of course, because they’re never happy -- “happy” is not on the life menu for them.  They will turn on a dime and find something else to be indignant about.  Professional activists are who they are for a reason, and it typically has very little to do with the supposed victim groups whose welfare they express so much concern over.)   

But will that golden day ever arrive?  Because there are people who seriously want this -- and some of them serve in Congress, some in the current administration, and -- I’m betting -- countless in the Deep State.  And of course “fairness”, “justice”, and “equity” are not necessarily on everyone’s mind either -- there are economic and political angles as well (cheap labor, reliable voting blocs, etc.).  Not every one of our problems can be solved with open borders, but it’s a start.  

Now, there are, of course, various objections to all of this, although I doubt if most of the skeptics have carried the logic quite this far.  But even the most basic grasp of history and economics will tell you that migrations -- mass movements of people -- happen for a reason, and as long as there’s a reason migrations will happen, which is the same as saying that as long as there are inequalities among people, they will be motivated to improve their lot.  (When expressed this way it seems totally obvious, doesn’t it?)  The world is not going to be suddenly set in stone just because some people would like it that way; things change, they evolve, they morph -- and yet human nature remains the same.  And as I said, the energy… the power… behind any mass movement of humanity is the desire for something better, and the greater the contrast, or gulf, between what they have and what they see (or think) that others have, the more energy and determination they will possess, and the more likely they are to succeed.  And it turns out, again historically, that the energy and determination of invaders is often more than a match for the determination of those who want to fend them off.  Human waves have, time after time, overcome the best defenses and the most advanced weapons systems.     

What our response is, or should be, to all of this is the question -- and again, we have the “fairness and equity” contingent saying, basically, we should let anyone in who shows up, no questions asked -- and any concerns about sustainability, or the political, economic, and social impact, are just symptoms of racism and selfishness.  People who feel this way to some degree but who aren’t as vocal about it might feel some hesitation about going all the way to the logical conclusion of open borders, but then one has to ask, where do they want to draw the line?  Because the true believers in our midst will say that no line should be drawn, and that you’re just being selfish if you try.  

On the other side of the political spectrum are those who repeat, as a mantra, “A country with no border is not a country.”  And while this is not strictly true from a historical perspective, as we’ve seen, in these times it seems more clearly to be the case.  But then we run into a paradox, as follows:  Again, historically, the Us vs. Them confrontations were based on traditional sources of identity -- race, ethnic group, religion, language, tribe, clan, etc. -- all those things which used to distinguish one people from another, because they were based on easily observable reality and human nature (in individuals and in groups).  The problem we have in the U.S. is that, “E pluribus unum” or not, we have never been united, beyond a certain point, along any of those traditional lines -- the ones anthropologists are so fond of studying.  The rage for “diversity” ignores the fact that we’ve always been diverse… mixed… hybrid… a “nation of immigrants” who are not always all that anxious to jump into the great American melting pot.  Traditional sources of identity survive, but they survive for those who value them and work to maintain them.  For the great number of Americans who have been -- voluntarily, in most cases -- “deracinated”, they may possess remnants -- family, home, hearth -- but otherwise all of the usual connective tissue that has held human societies together for millennia has frayed, decayed, and disappeared.  What’s left, for anyone who even feels a need for them, is ideas -- the American Experiment, the founding fathers, the founding documents, the flag, the National Anthem, and so on -- but these are only so consoling if the basic, organic culture is gone (or if it was never firmly established to begin with).  People down through the ages have fared quite well without all of these ideational trappings; they had their myths, legends, rituals, customs, and cultural features like music, dance, art, clothing, and so on… but again, these were rooted in reality, i.e. in the sort of reality that human beings need and instinctively respond to.  Not ideas, not abstractions, and certainly not politics as the be-all and end-all, but organic reality and a sense of place -- of belonging.  This is what is sadly lacking in our society, and the irony is that these hordes of migrants showing up at our border may well have a greater sense of all these things than we do.  And therein lies their hope, perhaps.  

Another way of expressing this is that organic culture builds resistance.  It’s a natural fortification against alien influences, especially those that are bent on attacking traditional customs or ways of thinking, watering them down, declaring them “outmoded”, “reactionary”, “racist”, etc. -- and, in extreme cases making them illegal and subject to punishment.  Among the many battle fronts in the culture wars of our time is that between those who value tradition, however expressed, and the globalists, who, despite their prating on about “diversity”, actually have as their goal the elimination of all differences and distinctions, and, ultimately, a totalitarian state composed of a ruling elite and a vast, gray army of serfs with no identity and no hope.  It’s no surprise, then, that when the globalists lay an axe to the root of any cultural tree, they always begin with religion, and then work their way up to race, ethnic group, family, and language.  All of these must be eliminated -- i.e., the idea of them must be eliminated -- the idea of them having value and being a source of identity.  Among the final acts in this drama -- the cherry on the top of the cake, if you will -- is language, and we see at this moment how language is being distorted, turned upside down, and “cancelled” of all rational meaning.  Language is the basis of thought, after all -- and a people without a functioning, reliable language is rendered incapable of rational thought -- or of any thought at all.  Try defining a value, or a tradition, without using words -- sure, you can point to things, but that’s not the same as describing them, declaring them to be of value, and adopting them as a mark of one’s own identity.  

And what about these globalists, after all?  What about the moguls of Silicon Valley and the mainstream media talking heads?  What about the denizens of the boardrooms of large mutinational corporations?  Aren’t they human too?  Well yes, in the strictly biological sense.  But somewhere along the line they opted out of any sort of traditional markers of identity and decided to be self-made -- which means that their only thing of value is themselves, and this is almost always expressed as a lust for power -- not only power over the physical world but over other people.  The natural human longing for the spiritual has, in them, been distorted to the point where we can say that power is their religion, and there is no other.  But they are not satisfied with being self-contained in their bizarre world where everything is its own opposite.  Perhaps on some deep level they realize they are living the most profound lie of all, but rather than give it up they defend it by hunting down anything that might expose it -- that might shed light on what it really is and how little it amounts to.  This is why they are constantly at war, and this, of course is what the “culture wars” are all about.    

The globalists’ weakness is not that their power is not real -- it is very real.  But it’s parasitic.  It cannot stand on its own, but needs a host -- and that host is, simply, the vast array of humanity -- confused, discouraged, and powerless though they be -- that follow orders because they haven’t a better idea, and that live always with some degree of chronic fear.  And yet they are a resource -- they work the land, if you will, whereas the globalists work… what?  Paper, electrons, images, illusions, fantasies -- all aimed at creating and perpetuating fear, mollifying it to some extent, then creating more and even newer and novel species of fear, in an endless cycle.  So any resistance to the globalists, their march through the institutions, and their assault on culture and the eternal verities must be based on that very culture and on those eternal verities, because that’s where the real power of the people resides.  Individual rights, ambition, initiative, creativity, etc. are all fine things, and necessary -- but those will not overcome the tidal wave… the onslaught… from globalists and their programs and instruments.  Only re-unifying in a solid, organic way will work -- but do we have the strength, motivation, and insight to do this?  A few seem to, but the bulk of the citizenry at this point seem to have already given up, capitulated, and retreated -- thinking, wrongly, that there is some place to hide, whereas in fact there is none.    

Just remember, the globalists fear us more that we fear them.  They may threaten our livelihood, or our very lives, but we threaten their view of the world and of their place in it; we threaten their reality.  I always imagine them looking down upon the simple folk and feeling a pang of envy and regret -- like, that’s what I once had, or could have had, but I gave it up for the proverbial mess of pottage.  So they react with blind rage, because they don’t realize that it’s not too late to repent.  

So with regard to open borders -- there are more ways to be conquered than by sheer numbers.  A weak and frail culture is ripe for replacement with something more vigorous and firmly rooted.  When we see these migrants trekking up through Mexico, making their way across the Rio Grande, and dropping from exhaustion in squalid holding centers, we may in fact be seeing our future.  Their lot will, eventually, improve -- and the resultant leveling may not be to everyone’s taste, but it will occur; it has to.          

Saturday, March 27, 2021

Gaffe or Guff?

 

“I have no idea if there will be a Republican Party” (in 2024).

Thus spoke Uncle Joe, in public and in plain sight, in the first press conference of his first term (heh heh).  So… anyone who wasn’t startled by this needs to cut back on the tranquilizers.  It may have been a unique statement by any president, even in these unique times.  So the question is, was he just rambling or did he lift the curtain, just a wee bit, on the plan -- on the machinations of the Deep State of which he is now titular head?  We know that there are already plans afoot to hunt down “domestic terrorists”, AKA Trump supporters… and that the military have expressed their willingness to take part.  And if “Trump supporters”, who apparently wake up every morning with visions of staging a remake of Jan. 6, are in the crosshairs, can Republicans in general be far behind?  What does the Republican hierarchy think of this statement?  (And since we’re speculating, if the Republican Party disappears before 2024, will it be replaced?  And if so, what with?)

The Democratic/progressive/liberal cabal has been scapegoating the mainstream Republicans for the alleged sins, crimes, and offenses of Donald Trump ever since he declared his candidacy, much to the dismay of said Republicans, who wanted nothing less than to wind up with Trump as their standard bearer.  And when he won and took over the White House, they did everything in their power to subvert, sabotage, and defeat his programs and agenda.  (You’d think they’d have been made honorary Democrats as a reward, but I guess they still weren’t considered virtuous enough.)  So they get blamed, for four long years, for things that they didn’t want and didn’t support, and now that Trump is safely back in Florida the Democrats start calling them “domestic terrorists”, and Nancy Pelosi describes Republicans in Congress as “the enemy within”.  (Something just rang a faint bell.  I think it has to do with Joseph McCarthy and/or J. Edgar Hoover.)  

And now here’s Uncle Joe saying, basically, that the Republicans’ days may be numbered.  (I never thought I’d ever agree with anything he said, but I agree on this one.)  The Republicans in Congress have been relegated to the sidelines and are totally ignored, because… well, who needs them?  Their last remaining grip on any power, namely the filibuster, is about to be done away with… more new Democratic members of Congress (representing DC and Puerto Rico, with Guam waiting in the wings) are soon to be minted… the federal government is about to take over the election process from the states via HR-1, thus assuring lifetime tenure for any and all Democrats... and so on.  So really, if the Republican Party still exists in some vestigial form in 2024, it will be as if it doesn’t, for all intents and purposes.  (Maybe the Democrats will keep it alive just to avoid comparisons with the Soviet Union -- but don’t get your hopes up.  None of the other already-relevant comparisons don’t seem to bother them in the least.)  

Frankly, I find it refreshing that Uncle Joe is letting the cat out of the bag.  (Well, maybe not the whole cat, maybe just one whisker, but still…)  It certainly starts bringing things into focus, and if the Republicans don’t declare Condition Red at this point, they will deserve whatever dreary fate awaits them in 2024.


Friday, March 5, 2021

What's Romney's Game?


Mitt Romney is an empty suit in some respects, but he's not stupid. When he says that “...the polls show that among the names being floated as potential contenders in 2024, if you put President Trump in there among Republicans, he wins in a landslide”, people sit up and take notice – especially when you consider that Romney was one of the more visible and active never-Trumpers all during the Trump administration (and, for that matter, in the run-up to the 2016 election). He did all he could to thwart Trump's programs and initiatives, and to encourage (or shame) other Republicans into doing likewise. In the Pantheon of RINO never-Trumpers he would be placed just below John McCain. Surely Trump running again in 2024 can't be on Romney's wish list – so why even bring it up if it encourages Trump supporters, who remain extremely loyal?


There's a strategy involved here, and I think it involves cutting to the chase and thereby scaring the crap out of not only the Democrats but also of the Republican mainstream. If anyone out there really thinks that Trump might possibly, conceivably, in their worst nightmare, run again, they will immediately start to build walls and fortifications, and make plans to pull every trick in the book to nip the idea in the bud – and this applies to both parties.


There are problems, however, with Romney's statement. For starters, it's based on a number of premises:


  1. That there will even be a presidential election in 2024. Lest we forget, certain members of the left wing of the Democratic Party, along with left-wingers in general, have suggested that we do away with presidential elections altogether. Some will add “and the office of president”, but others will agree to keeping the office but selecting its occupant by committee – made up, of course, of members of the ruling elite, i.e. the top layer of the left-wing pecking order and its facilitators in high tech and among the globalists. (Certain, ahem, overseas entities might be involved as well, for that matter.) Admittedly, one might ask how is this significantly different from what we have now, where there are only two parties in contention (some would say just one, the “uniparty”, and that the rivalry is about as authentic as what goes on in professional wrestling) and where the candidates are selected by the ruling elite and presented to the hapless public for its approval. The difference is that it would actually be more honest in that it would eliminate the pretense of elections representing “the will of the people”. (And by the way, selection by the ruling elite is true of both parties, despite the occasional populist noises made by subgroups. Trump's problem was that he wasn't on the A list; in fact he wasn't on any list at all, and that was his major offense – the hair and the orangeness were just added to provide visuals for the media.)

  2. That the Republican Party will still be functioning in 2024. Right now it is defeated, browbeaten, and being ground into fine powder by Democrat majorities in Congress. The party that thought it was used to standing by helplessly while the engines of government ground on didn't know what helplessness really was until now. When Trump spoke at CPAC he vowed not to start a third party – much to the relief of the Republican mainstream! – but any notion that the conservative (pro-Trump or at least not anti-Trump) minority within the Republican Party is going to somehow take over and become dominant between now and 2024 is wishful thinking at best.

  3. That Trump's base will still be intact in 2024. This seems like a safe bet, but it's important to remember that the Trump base and the Republican base are not the same thing. There is a correlation there, certainly, but I don't think the hard-core Trump supporter feels any loyalty to the Republican Party; in fact, I suspect that they see the Republican mainstream as part of the problem if not the actual enemy. If they had their way they'd throw the establishment Republicans to the dogs and start fresh (and the establishment knows this, which is why they're wasting no time distancing themselves from the “deplorables”).

  4. That – even assuming that elections are held in 2024, and that the Republican Party hasn't yet been declared most sincerely dead – the primary system will still be in place. Remember the good old days of brokered conventions and smoke-filled rooms? They could come back (without the smoke, I suppose). If you get rid of the primaries, then you get rid of the means by which what little is left of the voice of the people can be expressed. All that is left is wheeling and dealing. So let's say that Trump runs and comes out ahead in the primaries – big trouble for the Republican mainstream which will do anything to keep 2016 and the following four years from ever happening again. One solution is to simply ignore the primaries and hold the convention as if they didn't exist. Another solution is to simply not hold primaries. Problem solved! And don't think the Republican hierarchy hasn't been thinking along these lines ever since 2016.

  5. That loyal Trump supporters will still be willing and able to vote for him in primaries and in the general election. Even as we speak, people who vote Republican – or at least have done so in the last two elections – are being declared enemies of the state, and are being added to the watch lists of law enforcement and intelligence agencies based on the notion that they are potential “domestic terrorists”, or actual domestic terrorists by definition. The supposed factual basis for this is as follows: (1) Capitol riots on Jan 6: Trump supporters and no one else. And directed by Trump himself, i.e. no advance planning, to say nothing of spontaneity. (2) Capitol riots were an insurrection and a case of domestic terrorism. (3) And they were also an expression of white supremacy and racism. (4) Therefore, all Trump supporters are insurrectionists, domestic terrorists, white supremacists, and racists. (5) Therefore, anyone who voted for Trump in either 2016 or 2020 is all the above. (6) Therefore, the biggest threat to our national security (and the Biden administration has as much as said this) is Trump supporters and anyone who ever voted for Trump or who would again – which, at last estimate, numbers around 74+ million people, or nearly 1/3 of the adult population of the country. Where will those people be in three years? Will they be able to vote as they like without fear of reprisal, or will a new and improved method of voter suppression have done its work?


Now, I say these are premises, and they are unspoken but may be assumed based on Mitt Romney's statement. Unless he's playing a game here, with the goal of actually rendering some or all of these premises null and void – i.e. of speeding up the process that is already underway of morphing the U.S. from a democracy to a pseudo-democracy to a “people's republic”. And of course, because he is who he is, he will expect to be thanked for this warning by both the Republican mainstream and the Democrats – as if they needed any reminding! We've already seen the Democrats up their game by a quantum leap between 2016 and 2020, and put measures in place (with more on the way -- see H.R. 1) to insure that they will enjoy a perpetual hold on the presidency and Congress. And if, by the same token, the Republicans have been relegated to perpetual irrelevancy, why does Mitt bother? Chances are he hasn't really faced the facts quite yet – and given the overwhelming nature of the facts, chances are he never will.


But there's another angle to all of this. If Trump gives it another try, and the Republicans absolutely refuse to cooperate on any level, who are they going to nominate? Certainly not any true conservative, and absolutely not anyone who supported Trump in the slightest degree during his term in office, or voted for any of his Supreme Court picks, or voted against one or both of his impeachments. No, it will be the usual shopworn loser formula – nominate a moderate... someone who can “reach across the aisle”... someone who is perfectly at home with the Democratic agenda... someone who will be happy to identify as the anti-Trump... and someone who, in case of the inevitable loss, will not be a sore loser but will be gracious in defeat. The envelope, please – Mitt Romney!


So yes, by sounding the alarm regarding Trump's possible return to the political stage, Mitt is hoping to keep that from ever happening by enlisting the cooperation of both the mainstream Republicans and the Democrats. And then, given a dizzying array of “ifs” of various probabilities (which, if multiplied together, produce a joint probability not significantly different from zero), Mitt might just squeeze his way into the White House.


Well, dream on, Mitt – you tried it once and got ground up in the Obama machine, and guess what, the Biden machine is much more powerful and invincible, and adding to its power and reach with each passing day. (I say “Biden machine” but that's just shorthand for “Biden or Harris or whoever else the Democrats nominate in 2024”.) And, you think you represent the Republican mainstream, but I don't think you do, not with your obvious and often-demonstrated RINO vibes. The real Republican mainstream consists of those gray ghosts who wander the halls of the Capitol, kowtowing to the Democrats, apologizing for not being more “compassionate”, being good (and grateful) losers, and on those rare occasions when they win, not knowing what to do next. You can become one of them, which is a certain recipe for obscurity, or you can stick with your RINO/never-Trumper minority within a minority party and be (or remain) a hero of sorts to the Democrats and the media before you are relegated to obscurity anyway. But at least you've planted the seeds of fear (as if any more were needed) in the fevered brains of both parties, and they may come around to thanking you for the favor just before they give you a gold watch (a Chinese knock-off, actually) and a bus ticket out of town.

Tuesday, January 19, 2021

Obama's Fourth Term

 

Regardless of any last-minute official reports that may or may not come out in the next few hours (and it's doubtful there will be any, given that the Trump administration is sinking faster than the Titanic, with people at all levels bailing out like the proverbial rats deserting a sinking ship), there are some things that are now plain to see, and that will define the Trump presidency and this era to a significant degree.


And of these, perhaps the most striking is the role Barack Obama has played in all of this – starting on or about the day Donald Trump took that fabled escalator ride (down rather than up, and that's enough for a metaphor right there). Whether or not Obama was inspired by Hillary Clinton's custom-made Russia hoax is one question, i.e. would he have initiated a full-scale sabotage operation directed at Trump if it hadn't been for the tall tale of Trump's collusion with Russia? What I suspect is that he was already thinking seriously about the matter, and about strategy, but that the Russia hoax story was like unto a gift from above; it was tossed into his lap, and at that point he decided to go full-bore with the operation. And of course Hillary was out of office at that point, and technically a private citizen, so she could not readily call upon, and mobilize, the forces of the Deep State, and in particular the FBI and the Justice Department, the way Obama could.


But really, how badly did Obama want to render the 2016 election of Donald Trump null and void, and thus propel Hillary into her rightful place as Empress of America, of the Known World, and of the Universe in General? Did he really want her to succeed wherever he had failed? (Did he want her to turn Obamacare back into Hillarycare, for example?) What I suspect is that he knew the Russia hoax was, indeed, a hoax and that it would be exposed as such sooner or later – but that in the meantime it would serve to distract and hobble Trump and his administration, and any and all of his initiatives, both domestic and foreign, for, ideally, his entire term or the bulk thereof – which is, in fact, precisely what it did. And the instant the Russia hoax ran out of steam the impeachment (#1) went into high gear – seamlessly, with nary a bump in the road. In other words, turning Trump into an instant lame duck was more important than any sort of considerations for Hillary's health and well-being, so she was reduced to years of book tours and raving and ranting to anyone who would listen about how she'd been cheated (she being an expert in that area, as we know), while Obama proceeded to pursue more important long-range goals.


There's another nuance to all of this – subtle, I admit – speculative – but “what if?” We've seen how easy it is for an election to be hijacked if people have sufficient determination and the proper infrastructure. So what went wrong in 2016? And yeah, I know, they didn't have mail-in voting then, and maybe the voting machines were less hackable. But still – you'd think with all their resources the Dems could have pulled it off. Unless – and here's Obama playing the long game – he decided to let her get defeated. And why would he do that? Well, he knew who she was running against. Now, if she had won, Donald Trump would have been jettisoned off the political stage once and for all – a real one-hit wonder. Which means that the mainline Republicans would have remained in charge of their party and would have been ready to mount a campaign in 2020 with a “back to normalcy” theme that would have taken advantage of what would likely have been a disastrous four years of Hillary Clinton. And they might have won, and we'd be right back in the Bush era (maybe even with another Bush!). And Obama would have to finally retire from his position of influence in Washington. But! Allow Trump to win and then mount a campaign against him that rivals the Normandy invasion, and you can put the Republican Party in a permanent state of exile, and thus assure the Democrats perpetual rule. And this, course, is precisely what has happened. The good ship Trump is heading for the briny deep, and so is the Republican Party, at least on the national level – whether or not any of its members were on Trump's side. They will all be painted with the same brush. The Trump administration will be the bloody shirt that the Dems will wave in the air every time the Republicans start to show any signs of life; the Republican Party will be about as popular as the Confederacy. Mission accomplished! And if this is how it was played, you would have to admire Obama's political brilliance and insight.


But in any case, do you really think that once Obama helped get this whole Russia collusion process rolling he was going to just walk away and leave it to his minions? Get real. I'll bet he was right on top of this the whole time – overseeing, directing, prioritizing, providing guidance... not unlike the commander of a military operation. He had to make sure it stayed on track and paved the way for not only Trump's fall, but also that of the Republicans – not just in the 2020 election but in perpetuity. (His role came most prominently to the surface during the Democratic primaries, which I'll discuss in a minute. But it's not like he swooped down like a bird of prey that once time, and left things to take their course the rest of the time.)


(At this point you might say, wait a minute, the Mueller investigation was initiated during the Trump administration. Well yes, barely – but the groundwork had already been laid, and the investigation was staffed entirely by what were termed “angry Democrats”, so let's not quibble on that point. It was a Democratic operation from beginning to end.) (I used to think that if Trump ever tried to de-politicize the FBI he'd have to get down to at least the level of the third underassistant toilet paper replacement specialist in the J. Edgar Hoover Building.)


This all has to do with power, of course and as always – with the acquisition thereof and the perpetuation thereof. And Obama did have to leave the White House at a certain point, but that was a minor consideration since it seems very possible that he already, prior to leaving office, had assumed full authority over the Deep State and over its most powerful and influential elements. So, in effect, there would have been no real “transition” between the Obama administration and the Trump administration – the Obama administration hardly giving up a thing but continuing as before, but as a shadow government, and it was actually greater in number by far, in terms of people who were loyal to Obama and willing to follow his directives, than the administration of Donald Trump, where the most he could ever claim were the few appointees at the top of each pyramid. According to this theory, Obama had, all the time Trump was in the White House, his own bureaucracy, his own intelligence apparatus, and his own foreign policy. He certainly had sufficient appointees and friends in all the right departments; we know this from all the characters who came out of the woodwork to testify at the impeachment hearings. (And by the way, if there was no real transition in 2017, there was no need for one this time either, and all of the Democrats' whining about the Trump administration dragging its feet was mere show.)


So what does this all add up to? For starters, consider the possibility that Obama, for the first time in history as an ex-president, didn't give up any real power. In fact, he didn't even leave town! He just moved from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue not even a mile up the hill to a mansion in Kalorama – the new seat of government, in effect, until the Democrats could reclaim what was rightfully theirs. So Trump started out with a White House full of loyalists (but not all, as it turns out) and appointees scattered around D.C. as figureheads of various departments, agencies, and offices, and a handful of supporters in Congress, and his solid base among the citizenry – i.e. those who voted for him – but that was about it. “Draining the Swamp” does not come under the heading of “promises made, promises kept”. It couldn't, and it can't. You might as well try and levitate the Great Pyramid and plunk it down in the middle of Kansas.


So the next four years for Trump were an unending struggle to get the bureaucracy to cooperate – or even to appear to cooperate – or to at least not actively and blatantly resist and refuse to follow orders. And this was on top of unending challenges from Congress and the judiciary. Truly, it's a miracle the slightest thing got done in all that time.


So where do we go from here? Who's going to be in charge as of noon tomorrow? Joe Biden? The very thought is enough to inspire scoffing and derision. Bookmakers have already been taking bets on how long he'll last. Oh, you say that if Old Uncle Joe falters and is “25th'ed” Kamala Harris will take command? Sorry about that, but she's a figurehead too. I mean, think about it for a moment. For starters, who called in all of the Democratic contenders for the presidency at some point in the primaries – i.e. all the ones who had the vaguest hope of coming out on top? We know who, and it might have been a scene right out of Hollywood -- Don Barraco, capo di tuti capi, calling them, one by one, into his dimly-lit office and making them an offer they couldn't refuse. “This ain't your night, kid”, or words to that effect. All, of course, except for Uncle Joe, who, as it turned out, had been anointed all along. If only the rest of them had known, they could have saved themselves a lot of trouble (not to mention money, like in Mike Bloomberg's case).


But what about Kamala Harris? She never lost a primary because she never entered one. (Smart move.) Was she promised the VP slot by Mr. Big way back then? Who knows? One thing is clear – she was, at a certain point, chosen, and certainly not by Uncle Joe. But why her, out of all the countless possibilities? Number one, and most obviously – her “diversity” qualifications, which are overwhelming. It's hard to find a minority she doesn't belong to. And she is a hard leftist, just a bit less noisy than The Squad. But most importantly, if Obama made her he can break her, so she has to follow orders. If she is directed to bow to, and play along with, The Squad, she will. If she's directed to tell them to stuff it, she will. Because she can be replaced.


What I'm saying is that she's a younger and flashier sock puppet than Uncle Joe, but is a sock puppet nonetheless. The Anointed One may still be in charge. So what we will be witnessing tomorrow may well be, in effect, the start of Barack Obama's fourth term as president, at which point he will be tied with Franklin Roosevelt, but hey – ties were meant to be broken, right? If the Republicans are permanent dead meat on the federal level, what's to prevent Obama from being president for life? But that would be in the tradition of guys like Stalin, Mao, Putin, Kim, Duvalier, Mugabe, and other sterling characters, so he might want to think again. But perhaps, now that democracy has been tried and found wanting, we are about to enter another age of the Strong Man – or, more accurately, return to it, thoroughly chastened, after a brief hiatus.

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Normalcy at All Costs !

 

I call it “the Stop the Madness Vote”, and I think it's real. What it means in the case of the recent – and still disputed -- election is that a certain portion of the populace will cast a vote neither pro nor con a given candidate, but merely in the hope that it will help things to return to normal (however defined). After all, the citizenry has, for four-plus years now, been exposed to a level of political and social warfare that, for sheer viciousness and chaos, rivals anything most of them have experienced in a “real” war. Granted, there haven't been that many fatalities or serious injuries directly attributable to the conflict, but the citizenry are fatigued... exhausted... rubbed raw... and have been forced to live in a world where every conceivable thing (and some inconceivable things) have been totally politicized. We've been living in a crucible for over four years now. Economies on all levels save the very top layer have been shattered using the corona virus as an excuse. Innumerable relationships, even within families, have been strained or even broken... and the degree of mutual suspicion, hostility, and alienation among the citizenry has reached a level comparable to that in totalitarian societies. This was not the way we were meant to live in what is supposedly a free and open society; it's more like the atmosphere of the proverbial banana republic, where there is a coup or revolution every few weeks, and the sounds of marching boots and gunfire are always to be heard.


The forces and entities that have created this dystopian/nightmare world for us are many, and represent many motivations and agendas, which can be debated at another time. What I suspect is that the average voter, being an average citizen who simply wants to be allowed to live a simple, ordinary life without having to put up with a constant drumbeat of politics that he has no choice but to listen to... that person may eventually decide to vote not for a given candidate, or against a given candidate, but simply for whomever they think is most likely to return things to normal. They don't even have to agree with their platform or stated positions! In fact, they might find them distasteful. But the motivation to remove politics from everyday life – from something requiring 24/7 attention, and from which there is no escape – and go back to something that is confined to what used to be termed “election season” before the unending campaign era started has to be strong and compelling.


For example, a vote for Trump in November would have required a commitment, or at least a willingness to put up with, four more years of what has been going on for four-plus years already. (I detailed this in a recent post: https://zarathustrasoldman.blogspot.com/2020/07/4-more-years-really.html) Now, for a certain type of person this sort of thing is the ideal – pure red meat – crack cocaine. It's the way they want to live, and the way they expect others to live as well. Call them political junkies, swamp creatures, Deep State denizens, whatever – they thrive on battle, warfare, intrigue, and double-dealing, and cannot imagine life being any other way if it is to be satisfying and fulfilling. A good example of this personality type is “The Squad” which occupies the very tip of the left wing of the Democratic Party. But other Democrats are energized in a similar fashion, and even some Republicans – although the latter, being conservative by nature if not always by practice, would rather life was more like that depicted in certain classic TV shows like “Mayberry R.F.D.” The Democrats, on the other hand, seem to prefer an environment more akin to “Animal House” – at least the anarchistic part, which eventually leads to tyranny and totalitarianism. And because we are in an age of revolution, the Democratic world view is naturally the dominant one, and the one that appeals to perhaps not the majority of the populace but to enough of them that they are willing to vote for The Squad and their facilitators (and those who are afraid of getting on their wrong side, like a certain president-elect).


But we're talking about large segments of the voting populace here, and the Stop the Madness Vote would apply to a minority – and yet an important one, the way the “swing” or “independent” vote is always much sought after by both parties. These voters would have consisted mainly of people who might have voted for Trump in 2016, or for a third party candidate, or who had just sat out the election. This time around, they did not sit it out, but they didn't vote for Trump either. They might have voted third party, but more likely they would have voted for Biden (with noses firmly held) just to bring America's very own domestic perpetual war to an end.


But in this they would have been mistaken, since once Biden is ensconced and the powers behind his throne take over, the real war begins – or, more accurately, the war on the middle class and on “American values” that has been gaining momentum for decades finally enters the consolidation stage, in which all who resist are hunted down and neutralized. (This process has already been announced, when it comes to members of the Trump administration and its supporters, by various and sundry Democrats and their facilitators in the media. But you can expect it to extend to broader horizons as well.) This will be a bigger war, and have more dire effects on the citizenry, than anything that has occurred over the previous five years, and will almost make them yearn for the “good old days” when all they had to worry about was Trump's collusion with Russia, Trump's racism/sexism/xenophobia, Trump's grounds for impeachment, Trump's hair and necktie and skin, etc. and the reaction of the opposition or resistance to all of these. We have seen what the opposition is capable of – all the masks have been taken off and discarded, and the agenda is completely out in the open for, perhaps, the first time in our history. And once Trump is out of the way will there be “peace in the valley”? Au contraire! The same people who have been waging all-out war on Trump will turn their sights on the citizenry – especially the middle class – especially anyone suspected of having “conservative” or “reactionary” tendencies. And they have plenty of models to choose from, from the Bolshevik revolution in Russia to Maoism in China. The major – and remarkable – difference is that this time the revolution has the full support of the ruling elite... the money class. So it will be both ends of the socioeconomic spectrum against the middle. (Advice: Figure out some way to get either very rich or extremely poor before it's too late.)


But really, hasn't this always been the dream of totalitarians the world over? Create a two-class society with a ruling elite (i.e., them) and a vast horde of faceless serfs (i.e., the rest of us), with no one in between? This is precisely what's happening in the economy right now. It's no coincidence, and no accident. And the corona pandemic is not to blame; it just served to accelerate the process by providing an excuse for totalitarian diktats. And don't expect the dismal history of various attempts to accomplish this to discourage anyone; this is, after all, a war of ideas, and actual material consequences are of little interest.


So yes, the Stop the Madness Vote may have helped take Trump down and set Biden up – but whatever it is they thought they were doing thereby may turn to crushing disappointment. But don't expect them to stand up and apologize in public; that would not be “normal”.

Thursday, November 5, 2020

The Republican Party post-Trump, Revisited


When Donald Trump rides back up that escalator (figuratively at least) he will leave behind a political party that did not welcome him, never accepted him, and – I strongly suspect – is glad to see him leave and get out of their hair. He was never the head, or leader, or whatever, of the Republican Party (not that I am at all certain who was), and now that he's leaving the Republicans can settle back into their accustomed torpor, where every day is a lazy day in the steaming tropics and all that is needed is a hammock and a cold drink garnished with a rice paper umbrella. But is this the action of any sort of political party? Trump's program was their program, whether they liked it or not – and with him gone they are back to being program-less and free of ideas. How long can they survive under those conditions?


The Republicans do have a future, but just not on the national level. They will continue to be players in various redoubts across the fruited plain – not including the coasts, of course, nor various liberal enclaves in flyover country (cities controlled by Democrats plus university towns). They will enjoy dominance in some state legislatures and may be elected governors – although how much good it will do is questionable, since judges everywhere seem committed to reinforcing the “progressive” agenda at all costs (not to mention, the last gasp of state autonomy will be the upcoming elimination of the Electoral College). And they will, of course, be active at the county, small city, town, and village level. But on the national level I consider them the walking dead, and here's why.


But first a comment. Now and then someone – not necessarily a disgruntled Republican, it could be a liberal engaging in triumphalism – will contend that Donald Trump killed the Republican Party by, first, having the unmitigated gall to enter the Republican primaries in 2016, then to be nominated (aided by the Russians, no doubt – still an article of faith for the Democrats and the mainstream media), and then to be elected (ditto). And Republicans ever since then have been wringing their hands that here's this Godzilla-like creature in their midst who's ruining everything and giving Republicans a bad name, and that the country will never forgive the Republicans for having foisted Trump off on them, and that this spells doom for generations to come, et cetera.


I have a slightly different take on this. My opinion is that Trump actually saved the Republican Party from its own boring, colorless incompetence... injected new life into it (or tried to)... and kept it, basically, alive for four more years -- since it was at death's door by the end of the Obama administration, and a Hillary victory would have been the coup de grace (or coup de disgrace, whatever). The problem is that most Republicans, and especially the “never Trumpers”, would disagree with this, and contend that the party would be in much better shape now if it hadn't been forced to, somehow, go along with the bulk of Trump's initiatives, or at least not actively oppose them (with a few notable exceptions).


Party loyalty is, of course, party loyalty, not loyalty to any one person; all we have to do is go back to the Watergate era to find confirmation of that. (And at a slightly earlier time, a lot of Democrats bailed on LBJ.) But sometimes party loyalty involves compromise – doing what you have to do. And yet there were, and are, people who disagree, the foremost example having been John McCain, who took an active role in subverting the Trump administration from Day One. And Mitt Romney was, basically, McCain's understudy.


But the point is that Trump, simply by being who he is and doing what he did, at least kept the Republican “brand” on the market, even though it was an operation not unlike the process of keeping a disembodied brain alive in a jar like in some horror movie. (Except in the case of the Republicans, he was keeping a body alive without a brain – not even the “Abby Normal” brain from “Young Frankenstein”.)


So Trump gave the Republicans a new lease on life, except they didn't want it and didn't appreciate it. They would rather have been dead (as a party) than be seen as supporting Trump, as many of them said quite explicitly during the 2016 campaign. Distance from Trump = virtue and respectability was the message. He was as much an outsider to them as he was to the liberals/Democrats/progressives.


So now they get to return to the soporific creature comforts of minority status, except this time for keeps. Which means, incidentally, that the U.S. finally capitulates and converts to a one-party system on the national level, which is an inevitable characteristic of tyrannies and dictatorships everywhere, and that the Democratic primaries become the equivalent of the election, assuming that the Republicans even bother having primaries any longer. (Many states, cities, and counties already have a one-party system, and you can generally tell which they are by measuring their level of incompetence, corruption, and downright failure – not to mention less-exalted measures like the number of homeless and the incidence of fecal matter on public property.)


But why else, aside from their general demeanor and appearance, are the Republicans the walking dead? It's because they have become a minority party that can barely capture enough independent and “swing” votes to win elections, except in certain “deep red” locales. And why, in turn, is this? One reason is the power of ideas; the Democrats have them, and the Republicans don't. Say what you like about “AOC” for example, she has ideas. They may be wrong-headed, foolish, and delusional, and reflect profound ignorance, but they are ideas, and they serve to energize and inspire. And when revolution is in the air, ideas are all that count; cold reason and pragmatism can take a hike. And, of course, youth must triumph! By definition! Of course, the youth of the 1960s are now the grizzled veterans of the culture wars, whether they consider themselves to be on the winning side or not. They may have won many battles, but the culture war is still on or Trump would never have been elected.


Is there a Republican AOC out there anywhere? Some talk-show hosts might qualify, but they already have paying jobs and are not about to enter politics. We are, once again, in a time of revolution, the way we were in the 1960s, and the Young Turks in Congress are at the forefront, with the Old Guard forced to deal, cope, dither, rationalize, whatever it takes to hold on to their weakening grip on power. The 60s were not just about “sex, drugs, and rock & roll”, although those were the loss leaders. They were about more profound cultural changes, which took root then and are being promoted to new levels at the present time. Anyone who wonders when this process will stop – when it will be “mission accomplished” – has missed the concept of continuous revolution, of which the most prominent advocate was Chairman Mao, but which has plenty of lesser followers, including the present-day governments of Cuba and Venezuela (not to mention Antifa and BLM on the home front). For them, the revolution is not finished until Utopia is realized, and since Utopia can never be realized, the revolution is never over. Call it a full employment act for “agents of change”.


Another reason – and this is old news, but still – is that the Democrats are busy importing new constituents from other countries, primarily Central America but other places as well. And these people are willing to do work that Americans just won't do – namely reproduce. So... to over-generalize just a bit, you have self-sterilizing Democrats and liberal eunuchs bolstering their numbers by letting people in who have a vested interest in their programs, i.e. “benefits”. It's a smart move, for sure. And even if conservatives do have an edge when it comes to reproduction (it would be more accurate to say that traditionalists of many different kinds have an edge in that department), there's no way it can make up for what amounts to a siege from the Third World. There is a human wave – nay, a tsunami – coming across our southern border every day, and making its way even to the northernmost reaches of the land, hence the incidence of Mexican restaurants in places like Minot, North Dakota. History will record this as one of the great migrations of humanity, but it's hard to appreciate historical significance when you're getting overrun. (One consolation for those who don't believe in the American Empire is that this may be the biggest single factor in its demise; time will tell. There is, after all, a high correlation between the death of empires and said empires being overrun by aliens, although the precise order of events varies.)


Then you have good old generational differences – and, as always, the revolutionaries are on the young side and the conservatives are on the old side. This is not to say that the conservatives will one day be totally replaced by the revolutionaries, because even in the worst of times there are people who, somehow, manage to engage in rational thinking... but we are, basically, looking at a revolutionary society on the national level (a process which has been building slowly over a century at least, but which is now coming to full fruition) which will do everything in its power (which is considerable) to silence and neutralize all opposition, if not engage in its outright extermination. (As things stand, the liberals are busy exterminating themselves through abortion, which is ironic to say the least. So the race is on – do they cease to exist during or after the revolution? Time will tell. And if they do cease to exist, who keeps the revolution going? Oh, right – immigrants. But many of them are way more conservative and traditionally-minded than American liberals. So maybe irony will win in the end.)


So, to sum up, Trump arguably saved us from a headlong rush into this fate for four years. But it does seem inevitable; the long-term trends are what they are... and I haven't even touched on aggravating factors like the national debt, crony capitalism, environmental degradation, decaying infrastructure, the cost of empire, the collapse of our public education system, social media turning us all into robots, corruption in general, and so on. Everything that's happening at this time can be considered an accelerant; there are no counter-trends that I can think of.


So what we should be seeing very soon is the final death rattle of the Republicans on the national level – an event which will be celebrated far and wide, no doubt. And the conventional wisdom will be that Trump was what did it – he was the bull in the china shop, the disrupter, the destroyer. But if that's true, as Trump leaves the political stage the Republicans should expect to recover whatever respect they enjoyed before he took that fabled escalator ride. The problem with that idea is they didn't enjoy any such respect, except possibly in their own deluded world view. And remember that Trump's hard-core supporters didn't vote for him because he was a Republican; they voted for him because he was who he was. (He might even have won as an independent candidate, the way Ross Perot tried to do.) So without him to prop them up, the Republicans are going to collapse – said collapse being long overdue. And Trump's hard-core supporters will fade back into the fields and forests of flyover country, satisfied that, for one brief shining moment, their voices were heard and their values were honored. They will hunker down and wait out the revolution, hoping that one day they, or their descendants, will once again have a voice.