Not Too Shahabby

So -- once again -- what's going on with Iran and this Keystone Kops missile test? What's their freakin' deal, anyway? 'Cause if they're trying to irritate the Bush administration like unto a case of the crabs, they're succeeding mightily. And if they're trying to keep Israel with it's finger on "the button", they're succeeding as well. The way things usually go in the Near East, it's hard to tell insanity from cold calculation. We know that Ahmadinejad likes nothing more than to dance around and provoke the U.S., as if it were the dim-witted giant from "Jack and the Beanstalk". The Israelis, for their part, are far from dim-witted, but they fancy themselves more reasonable than, and somewhat aloof from, their more emotional Islamic neighbors. So neither can be "called down" by the slightest provocation -- and yet there has to be a point at which their patience runs out, and that brings up the question, what does Iran want? Do they want to just keep "mooning" the U.S. and Israel, assuming that neither will deem it sufficient cause to start a war? So the net effect would be to show up the impotence of the U.S. and the ambivalence of Israel -- and in this, they have already succeeded to some extent. Nothing can put a scowl on Condi Rice's face -- or an even bigger sneer on Cheney's -- or a look of even more puzzlement on Bush's -- than some sort of antic on the part of the Iranians. In this, they (the Iranians) resemble nothing so much as that one hyperactive kid in the class who succeeds in dominating everything, and in driving the teacher to drink or worse.

On the other hand -- they may be actually trying to provoke an attack, with a war to follow. And what would the purpose of that be? One could say, to justify a counterattack on Israel, but based on the evidence from their spectacular -- ahem -- missile test, that doesn't seem very likely. A war between Israel and Iran would result in Iran turning into a sea of glass and Israel getting a hangnail at worst. I mean, where do they think all our "disarmed" nukes wind up, in some salt mine? Please. Another possibility -- it would finally stimulate the Islamic world to act as one and retaliate against Israel en masse. This could do a bit more than give Israel a hangnail, but I wouldn't count on it having much long-term impact. What, then? Make Israel and the U.S. even more shunned and isolated by the world community? It would be hard to beat what's already been accomplished by our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. If we were any more of a pariah they'd have to ship us into outer space on an asteroid, like in the old sci-fi books I used to read as a kid. OK then, how about a simple death wish? Iran gets trashed and becomes a perpetual martyr to the cause of Islam, jihad, anti-Zionism, etc. Could be. Remember that in the Islamic world, delusions of grandeur go far beyond the grave.

Bottom line -- I honestly don't know. (Now there's a shocker!) I don't know what they're up to, and I doubt we'll ever know, because events will soon put all speculation to rest. The clouds of war are accumulating, and it strikes me that the last, great gesture of defiance on the part of the Bush administration might just be to start a war with Iran then dump it in Obama's, or McCain's lap. (McCain will thank them, by the way -- Obama will be sorry he was ever born.) Israel will of course be glad to see one more major piece taken off the chess board. But how long can the game go on?

(BTW, according to the paper, the Shahab missile is modeled after the one the North Koreans call the "Nodong". Now... what kind of country would name a missile -- the ultimate phallic symbol -- the "Nodong"? I rest my case.)