The Beginning of the End Game

Anyone who's ever done any sailing can tell you that a change in the wind does not always come on in a big way, all of a sudden. Sometimes it's announced by just the slightest ruffling of the jib. It make take a while to change in a definitive way, but it's that slight ruffling that provides the first clue, if one is paying attention. What I am seeing now is a similar phenomenon, whereby the media are starting to pull back a bit from the "it's over" attitude they have been displaying for the past week or two vis-a-vis the Democratic Party contest for the presidential nomination. Reality is starting to creep in, some would say. If Obama is nominated, by Election Day he could be wearing an afro and putting out black power salutes... talking about reparations for slavery... an egalitarian foreign policy when it comes to Israel vs. Palestine... and who knows what other abominations? Rather than being a unifier, he could wind up stuck over in a corner with Stokely Carmichael, Malcolm X, Louis Farrakhan and, yes, Jeremiah Wright. But he will still be the Democratic candidate, by gosh, and he will be given a drubbing that will make George McGovern look like Rambo by comparison. Of course, this is not what they are actually saying -- it's more like, those Bible-and-gun-toting rednecks he talked about might just decide to go to the polls and vote, and who knew there were so many of them? At least Hillary has had the good sense to keep her distaste for the working man, the petite bourgeoisie, and the kulaks to a minimum throughout the campaign.

In any case, the media are starting to talk more and more like party pragmatists. Now it's all about who can beat McCain, rather than who best represents the utopian ideals for which the Democrats are justly famed (infamed, actually). Suddenly the question of Michigan and Florida is on everyone's mind, and -- yes, just as I predicted -- there are subtle hints that Hillary may try to claim those votes, and succeed! Then there is the question of the loyalty of the "pledged" delegates. (How much is the "pledge" of a Democrat worth anyway? I rest my case.) Then there are the superdelegates, who can, basically, do anything they damn please. I honestly think we're working up to a palace coup by Hillary, and that Obama won't be able to do a thing about it (although Al Sharpton might be willing to get arrested as a token gesture of protest). There is even a vigorous debate as to how many votes are really necessary to win the nomination! (You would think this would have been settled long since, but again, we're talking about the Democrats here, whose innumeracy is legendary.) So no, I think the people who claim that it's "over" are indulging in wishful thinking. I think we're going to see a last-minute, out-of-the-blue checkmate by Hillary that will leave Obama shaking his head in disbelief... and his supporters running for the nearest watering hole to drown their sorrows. I could be wrong, of course... but maybe not.